AUSTRALIA exported 14,418 tonnes of canola in October, down 86 per cent from the 102,597t shipped in September, according to the latest export data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The figure is one of the smallest monthly totals seen for years, and reflects the rundown of stocks ahead of Australia’s biggest ever canola harvest.
Shipment of new-crop canola got off to a strong start out of Western Australian ports in November, and the oilseed is expected to have a big presence in shipping stems in ensuing months.
In its latest Canola Supply and Demand Report released December 3, Lachstock Consulting has forecast Australia’s 2021-22 canola crop at 5.8 million tonnes (Mt), above the 5.73Mt as forecast by ABARES.
The WA crop is seen at a record 3Mt, almost 50 per cent bigger than its 2020-21 crop.
“The WA crop is extraordinary,” Lachstock said.
“Clearly there has been a combination of more area and yield than all models and imagery suggested.
“There has been some expansion in area through Geraldton and the GM market share supports areas being reclaimed from pasture.
“Still, the yields are amazing this season and all the reports of frost and wind damage seem to be a thing of the past for many.”
Lachstock Consulting said the pace of Australian canola exports of new crop is strong, despite a drop-off from the 600,000t expected to be shipped in November to an actual figure of closer to 500,000t.
“With the soft interior basis in Australia, crush margins have remained strong and there have been some bulk export sales made into the USA to satisfy the non-GM market.
“This has taken the pressure off having to compete into South-east Asia.”
Lachstock therefore expects Australia’s crush to remain at full capacity this year.
Increased WA production is expected to push an additional 500,000t of canola into export markets in 2021-22 than was previously expected.
Bangladesh, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Europe, are expected to be volume buyers.
“The sub-continent buying interest has been interesting.
“Normally we would expect severe rationing in these developing economies, but the commitment to branding and new products in recent years, plus the Ukraine already being sold out, has meant the Bangladesh market has come strongly for Australian seed.”
Lachstock said Ukraine has already shipped much of its expected campaign, with a very strong October line-up pushing pace ahead of normal.
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