International

A European Commission MARS Global Outlook on Russia estimates 2024-25 all wheat production at 82.9Mt (-11pc yoy), including winter wheat at 53.1Mt (-17pc) and spring wheat at 29.8Mt (+1pc). Barley production is pegged at 20Mt (-6pc), including winter barley at 2.6Mt (-12pc) and spring barley at 17.5Mt (-5pc). Maize production is pegged at 13.8Mt (-24pc). Hot weather throughout June impacted yields of winter cereals, particularly in south-western regions, while persistent rain through Jul-Aug in the Volga Federal District interrupted harvest and affected grain quality. Hot and dry conditions negatively impacted the yield potential of spring cereals in large parts of European Russia, but important production regions in Asian Russia benefitted from above-average rainfall resulting in average to slightly above average yields for spring barley and wheat, although quality has been impacted by rain throughout harvest. A cold start followed by a hot and dry summer has negatively impacted maize yields. 

As at 27 Sep, Russia’s 2024-25 wheat harvest was estimated to be 88pc complete, yielding 80.9Mt, barley 89pc at 16.7Mt, maize 31pc at 3.4Mt and rapeseed 68pc complete at 3.9Mt. 2025-26 winter grains and oilseed planted area to date was 9.7m ha, equivalent to 49pc of intended area. 

Brazil Conab reported that as at 29 Sept, 2024-25 first (full-season) maize planting was 22pc complete (23pc previous year), with fieldwork concentrated in Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná. Soybean planting was less than 2pc complete (4pc). Planting is reportedly slower in Mato Grosso compared to the previous year due to low soil moisture, but with crops reported to be in good condition in Paraná. 2024-25 wheat harvest was 31pc complete (35pc). 

According to India’s Meteorological Department, Jun-Sept monsoon rainfall was at a four-year high, with the above-average rainfall helping to alleviate low soil moisture, which may boost planting of winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas. 

US private exporters reported sales of 195kt of corn and 120kt of soybeans to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

Western Australian canola bids lost about A$5/t yesterday to be bid $755/t FIS, while cereals were unchanged. 

In the east of Australia bids were largely unchanged across all commodities. Canola was bid $724/t, wheat $349/t and barley $300/t. 

Many regions of WA saw below to very much below average rainfall in September which has resulted in some loss in yield potential. Growers are now anxiously watching the October rainfall forecast hoping for some decent rains to finish off some big crops.