Markets

Daily Market Wire 5 March 2024

Lachstock Consulting, March 5, 2024

Wheat regained some of its previous day losses.  Oilseeds firmed.

  • Chicago May 2024 wheat up US6.25c/bu to 564c/bu;
  • Kansas May 2024 wheat up 15.75c/bu to 580.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis May 2024 wheat up 15.75c/bu to 659.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2024 up €1.75/t to €193.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 up 5.25c/bu to 430c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 3.75c/bu to 1155c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024  up C$5.20/t to $596/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €3.75/t to €417.25/t;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat down A$4.50/t to $321.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 wheat down A$4/t to $326/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$304.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 17 points to US$0.6509.

International

US Supreme Court has ruled unanimously that states cannot bar Donald Trump from running for another presidential term. The ruling rejected a challenge to his eligibility the day before “Super Tuesday” when 15 states will be voting to choose the Democratic and Republican party nominees. 

Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, said he will ask the European Union to put sanctions on Russian and Belarusian agricultural products.  

Stratégie Grains trimmed its 2024-25 EU canola production forecast by 0.1Mt to 18.3Mt (19.9Mt previous year), from 5.6Mha (6.2Mha). It left unchanged sunflower seed production at 10.7Mt (9.8Mt) and soybean production at 3.1Mt (2.9Mt). 

Reuters reported untimely rainfall and hailstorms in India’s main producing areas had battered winter-sown crops, including wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas, delaying harvest.
Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reported that for week ending 4 Mar, 2023-24 cumulative grain exports were 30.1Mt (-9pc from previous year), including wheat at 11.9Mt (+4pc), maize at 16.1Mt (-16pc) and barley at 1.6Mt (-22pc). 

USDA Grain Crushing and Co-Products reported maize consumption for ethanol in January at 12.1Mt (-10pc from December, -3pc January previous year). 

USDA Oilseed Crush reported January soybean crush at 5.8Mt (6.1Mt previous month, 5.7m January previous year), canola crush at 203,989t (193kt previous month, 204kt January previous year). 

Iran’s SLAL reportedly seeks (6 Mar) 180,000t maize and 120,000t feed barley from optional origins and 120,000t soymeal from Brazil or Argentina, for Mar/Apr shipment. 

Algeria’s state grains agency seeks 50,000t milling wheat from optional origins, for May/Jun shipment. 

US private exporters reported sales of 110kt of corn to Taiwan during the 2023-24 marketing year and 126kt of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations (30kt 2023-24 and 96kt 2024-25). 

Australia

ASX eastern Australia wheat futures continued to slide yesterday, with the May contract settling at $326/t, down $4/t from previous day. Delivered bids were mostly unchanged but we are seeing very low and slow liquidity at current values. Canola was bid stronger but liquidity from growers at this stage was limited. The site price target for the large number of leftover sellers appears to be $600/t. 

ABARES released its March Crop Report today with 2023-24 wheat production revised up 0.5Mt to 26Mt. WA wheat production was pegged at 7.7Mt, SA at 4.8Mt, Vic at 5.2Mt, NSW at 7Mt and Qld at 1.1Mt. Total barley production was unchanged at 10.8Mt and canola revised up 0.2Mt to 5.7Mt. Sorghum production was revised up 0.5Mt to 2Mt, a 38pc upwards revision from December, citing better than expected summer rainfall which led to higher plantings of later-sown sorghum crops, increased yield potential and boosted overall sorghum production.

 

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