Markets

Daily Market Wire 5 October 2021

Lachstock Consulting, October 5, 2021

French and US winter wheats maintained upward momentum. Canola lifted and soybeans again were lower. US dollar weakened.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US1.25c/bu to 756.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 5.25c/bu to 754.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December up 1.25c/bu to 930.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €1/t to €265.25/t;
  • Corn December contract down 0.75c/bu to 540.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 10.75c/bu to 1235.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract up C$4 to $907.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €4.75/t to €649/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.3 to 93.8;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.729;
  • CAD firmer at $1.259;
  • EUR firmer at $1.162;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up AU$4/t to $348/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2023 up $5/t to $360/t.

International

Quieter markets on the ag side to start the week, with Chicago closing +1 1/4¢, KC -5 1/4¢, Minny +1 1/4¢, and Matif +1€ on the earlier close.  Corn dropped three quarters of a cent and beans slipped 10 3/4¢ (Matif +4.75€, Winnipeg +$4).  Crude oil has spiked nearly two bucks to $77.6 WTI / $81.3 Brent after OPEC announced that it would not make a larger production increase like some were hoping for.  The DOW dropped 323 points.  The AUD is trading at 72.9¢, the CAD $1.259, and the EUR $1.162 with the dxy at 93.8.

Next Tuesday the October WASDE will incorporate last week’s stocks and production figures.

Flash US corn sales saw 427,000t sold to Mexico.

Corn harvest was reported 29pc complete, figures released after the market close, bean harvest 34pc and milo 38pc.  Planting of winter wheat was 47pc done with 19pc already emerged.  Despite most expectations being for faster field work across all crops the report numbers are still largely within range.

The new US administration’s announcement of their “strategy” for China, largely as expected, condemned China’s “unfair” trade practices and suggested that they are looking at enforcement options for the failures to follow previous trade deal commitments.

In what was interesting timing, the USDA also released their “Trade Issues” report for specialty crops, including wine, which repeatedly highlighted China’s trade restrictions.

Weekly export inspections had corn at 808,000t, wheat 611,000t, beans 844,000t and milo/sorghum 77,000t, to Mexico and Sudan but not to China.

More talk about reduced Russian winter wheat acres is also doing the rounds, blaming the combination of dry weather and reduced prices from the floating export tax.

Weather maps for Russia are still flirting with chances of rain mid-month, but fairly dynamic model runs and not as much on the maps as desired.

US weather maps, meanwhile, are still building out the rainfalls forecast and bringing some concerns about harvest delays in coming weeks.

Australia

Rains on the map for NSW are starting to push over an inch for central and northern areas raising new quality concerns up north if this pattern continues. Less rain is forecast down south where some crops could still benefit.

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