Markets

Daily Market Wire 10 January 2024

Lachstock Consulting, January 10, 2024

US winter wheat markets gained 2 percent.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat up 13.75c/bu to US610c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat up 11.75c/bu to 627c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat up 3c/bu to 705.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 up €1/t to €219.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 up 4c/bu to 471.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 4c/bu to 1258.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$8.70/t to C$632.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €4/t to €424.25/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat down A$0.50/t to $370.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley unchanged at A$307.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 34 points to US$0.6686.

International

Egypt’s GASC purchased 360kt Russian and 60kt Ukrainian wheat in an international tender yesterday at $282.35-$285.75/t c&f, for Feb-Mar shipment. 

Conab Brazil reports that as at 6 Jan, 2023-24 soybean planting was 99pc complete. Harvest of early planted crop has begun and is most advanced in Mato Grosso, with initial indications suggesting below average yields, albeit with recent precipitation beneficial. Conditions in Rio Grande do Sul were deemed favourable for crop development, with soil moisture levels good. In contrast, reduced rains in Paraná, especially in western regions, could hamper crop development. First (full-season) maize planting is estimated at 84pc complete (90pc previous year), with harvest 4pc done (1pc). In Minas Gerais, crop development was behind normal due to irregular precipitation, while favourable weather conditions aided progress in Rio Grande do Sul. 

According to Egypt’s Deputy Minister of Supply and Internal Trade, 2023 calendar year wheat imports reached 11Mt, compared to 9.6Mt in 2022, with more than 80pc of imports originating from the Black Sea. 

Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports that cumulative 2023-24 (Jul/Jun) grain exports to the week ending 8 Jan, at 19.5Mt, were down 18pc year on year. The total included wheat at 7.8Mt (-9pc), maize at 10.3Mt (-22pc) and barley at 1.2Mt (-30pc). 

Ukraine’s APK Inform notes sudden changes in weather conditions across Ukraine recently, and frequent thaws could have a negative impact on winter cereals this year. The second half of December and the beginning of January have been characterised by abnormally warm weather, but the thaw has now been replaced by deep frosts. 

Algeria’s state grains agency (OAIC) seeks at least 50,000t durum from optional origins, for Feb/Mar shipment.

Australia

Monday’s offshore sell off was the catalyst for another softer day in local markets yesterday. Liquidity is poor though, as growers still are partially in holiday mode and the trade is also comfortable with current coverage. The north/south spread on the east coast is tight and is keeping southern grain local for now. 

For the week ending 9 January southern NSW and Vic clocked up some massive rainfall totals of 50-150mm. The expected run of clear days from today will be very welcome to try to dry things out but there are more showers on the forecast from early next week. 

Lineups data for January is currently showing 3.83Mt of total grain on the stem, up from 3.48Mt last week. Wheat at 2.36Mt is up from 2.09Mt, barley at 965kt is up from 934kt, canola at 451kt is up from 400kt and sorghum is unchanged at 53kt. Activity at Australian grain ports picked up this week and is reflected in an increase in average wait times. There are currently 16 vessels anchored and 13 loading at Australian ports.

 

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