Daily Market Wire 10 October 2022

Lachstock Consulting October 10, 2022

Markets firmed. The US dollar index gained a little and the Dow Jones Industrials Average eased 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US1.25 cents per bushel to 880.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 3.75c at 968.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 5.5c/bu to 968c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €3/t to €348/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract up $0.75/t to $332/t;
  • Corn December contract up 7.75c/bu to 683.25/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 9c/bu to 1367c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2022 contract up C$1.70 to $868.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €12.75/t to €629.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up A$0.50/t to $465/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$330/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.635.


Russia’s Agriculture Ministry reports that as at 3 October, the 2022/23 wheat harvest yielded 102.1Mt, with yields at 3.6t/ha (+28pc on same period last year), barley harvest was at 23.8Mt with yields at 3.0t/ha (+30pc y/y). It also reports low soil moisture reserves in Krasnodar, Rostov and Stavropol pose risks for 2023/24 winter grain production, including wheat.

In Argentina, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rates 2022/23 wheat conditions 54pc fair/excellent (55pc last week, 74pc last year), with the majority of poor crops in central and northern areas due to drought. If there is no rainfall over the next seven days conditions and yield potential may deteriorate further, including in southern regions. 

In Brazil, Conab has released its first full outlook for 2022/23 pegging total maize production at 126.9Mt (112.8Mt previous year), 1.4Mt higher compared to the provisional August outlook. Wheat production forecast was unchanged this month, at a record 9.4Mt (7.7Mt last year) soybean production forecast at 152.4Mt (125.5Mt previous year), 2.0Mt higher compared to the provisional August outlook.

FranceAgriMer reports 2022/23 maize harvest is at 67pc complete (51pc previous week, 6pc previous year), with the crop rated 41pc good/excellent (41pc, 89pc).


Markets have been tracking sideways with everyone very hesitant because of weather at the moment. Execution programs are in a spin this morning with east coast bulk handler sites dropping like flies due to flooding and wet weather. 

Bureau of Meteorology weekend Watch and Act warnings were issued across much of NSW and Victoria as intense rain flooded parts of both states. Evacuation orders were issued for areas along the Lachlan and Hawkesbury rivers, with more than 100 warnings issued across NSW as of Sunday night. Unfortunately, the next weather system is expected to arrive this Wednesday/Thursday and the highest rainfall totals are expected across Victoria and southern NSW.
 The GIWA October Crop Report said perfect conditions for grain fill during September have pushed tonnage estimates for the WA grain harvest to the near record levels. Mild temperatures across the whole state and the absence of any significant frost events have combined to give the crops every chance of achieving above average yields for all crops in all regions with wheat production now forecast at just over 12Mt, barley 6Mt and canola 3.8Mt.

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