Markets

Daily Market Wire 11 January 2022

Lachstock Consulting, January 11, 2022

Soybeans and French rapeseed settled 2pc lower. Other markets were mixed.

  • Chicago wheat March contract up US3.5 cents per bushel to 762c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 3.25c/bu to 778.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March down 9c/bu to 914.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €1/t to €275.50;
  • Corn March contract down 7c/bu to 599.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans March contract down 25.5c/bu to 1384.75c/bu
  • Winnipeg canola March 2022 contract down C$4.50/t to $1030.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2022 contract down €19.25/t to €808.75/t;
  • ASX Jan 2022 wheat contract up A$8.40/t to $351.70/t.
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $3/t to $360/t.
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.717c

International

In other markets Black Sea wheat increased US$1.75/t, soybean meal fell $9.40/st and oil fell 0.71usc/lb.

Conditions are set to improve throughout southern Brazil into the middle of Argentina. According to meteorologist Don Keeney, weather patterns will change next week, resulting in wetter conditions in the northern half of Argentina and southern Brazil, while northern Brazil will have a welcome break from the rainfall.

USDA will release its WASDE estimates overnight tomorrow, with many expecting it to take the knife to South American soybeans and, to a lesser extent, corn.

US winter wheat conditions remain well below normal, and 65 per cent of the country is in drought according to the latest release of the drought monitor. We know that the correlation at this time of the year to final yields is low, but the market will be wary until it can find more confidence.

As we approach February delivery in MATIF canola, the market is showing extreme signs of volatility. Imports of Australian canola are not doing enough to quell the nearby shorts, and the European oil market is shrugging off any COVID-related demand concerns.

Australia

Local wheat markets were a touch firmer both at the terminals and direct to port for January period, and we saw bids up A$10/t in Victoria on selected grades. The trade wheat markets still have wide spreads between bid and offer.

Barley continues to get a bid and remains very steady across the port zones, and malt premiums remain firm. The ongoing rain in Victoria and NSW has all but sealed the fate for malt supply now.

We saw some life back in the canola market yesterday across the boards, with Victorian and South Australian prices firmer by $5-10/t. Australian values remain steeply discounted to the rest of the world for both current and new crop.

With plenty of moisture, the summer-crop program is becoming a dream run for Queensland and northern NSW, with yield potential looking good and the earliest of sorghum to be stripped in the next week

Storage capacity is likely to be a pinch point with the increase in production and the hangover of a large winter crop area.

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