Markets

Daily Market Wire 11 March 2021

Lachstock Consulting, March 11, 2021

Crude oil bounced back forty odd cents to $64.4 WTI / $67.9 Brent and the DOW was up 477 points after the stimulus bill in the US passed its last vote and headed to the President’s desk.

  • Chicago wheat May contract down US4c/bu to 652.5c;
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 10c/bu to 616.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract down 6.25c/bu to 639.25c;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €1.75/t to €227.50;
  • Corn May contract down 11.75c/bu to 534c;
  • Soybeans May contract down 30.25c/bu to 1409.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract down C$19.50/t to $776.70;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract down €11.5/t to €509.25;
  • US dollar index down 0.2 to 91.8;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.773;
  • CAD unchanged at $1.263;
  • EUR firmer at $1.192;
  • ASX wheat May contract up A$0.50/t to $298.50;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $0.50/t to $308.

International

Almost everything grains-related in the US, including both feeders and fats, traded off as markets looked around and found fairly little new bullish news.

Daylight saving time will commence this weekend in Chicago, which will push market opening and closing time forward relative to Australian time.

Much as expected, the US$1.9 trillion new US stimulus bill has passed and markets now are looking to see how effective it will prove.  Ag was mostly left out of this round, with the largest allocation directed towards racially-charged direct payments to minority farmers, something that’s almost certain to end up challenged in court.

Weekly Ethanol Industry Association data had production finishing the bounce back, following the cold-snap shutdowns, to 938,000 bpd. Stocks dropped 355,000 barrels, more draw-downs occurring in the Gulf which could imply it was tied to further exports.  Renewable Identification Number (RIN) values are up yet again, with the new administration showing no interest in issuing waivers.

Algeria’s OAIC tender results the other day reported to have bought just over half a million tonnes, or 450,000t, depending on whose estimates are to be believed.

Touching on those impacts, France’s Agrimer trimmed forecast wheat exports last night by 100,000t, pencilling in fewer intra-EU flows, which have been very slow. Carry-out forecast was lifted by 100,000t.

Egypt’s GASC has jumped on the board weakness to issue another tender after close, for late April wheat. It will be interesting to see how deep the Russian offer pool is with more farmer sales reported this week.

Argentina’s Rosario grain exchange cut soybean crop forecast by 4 million tonnes (Mt) to 45Mt (WASDE 47.5Mt) noting the recent weather problems.

More rumours emerged about China booking SRW wheat. Though this story did the rounds yesterday also, there was no confirmation in terms of flash sales reports. If business was  booked today over flash limits it should report tomorrow US time.

There was also more rumour, again not confirmed, of more interest by China in old crop Ukrainian corn this week. The Ukrainian domestic market reportedly ignored the sell-off last night to hold fairly flat in cash US dollar terms.

US barge and rail markets both are very firm this week as existing corn business continues to be executed to China.

Australia

Rains arrived just as forecast in northern NSW and Queensland’s southern Darling Downs, timely and welcome falls between 25mm and about 40mm.

NSW forecasts predict storms later this week bringing 20-30mm in the centre of the state, but again southern areas are seen as missing out.

Tuesday’s post-holiday market was little changed from Friday.

Early reports emerged of east coast forage grains seeding and more interest in early plantings of canola, with April only a few weeks away.

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