Daily Market Wire 12 December 2018

Lachstock Consulting, December 12, 2018

Mixed for grain and oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat was down -4.25c to 521c
  • Kansas wheat was down -5.5c to 504.75c
  • Spring wheat down 0.25c to 575c
  • CBOT corn was up 0.75c to 384.75c
  • Matif corn was up 1 to  €174.75,
  • Soybeans were up 5.25c to 915c,
  • Winnipeg canola was down C$2.10 to $485.50,
  • Matif canola was down €1.50 to €369,
  • Dow Jones was up 165.56 to 24588.82
  • Crude oil was down 1.4pc to $51.70 per barrel
  • AUD 0.72
  • CAD  0.746
  • EUR 1.132

Wheat markets were lower across the board with the USDA doing no favours. They brought US carryout up to 26.5mmt 489kmt above market expectations. They also increased Russian supply by 1mmt and exports by 1.5mmt through increased carryout from last year. In Australia they called the crop 17mmt, which still sits above market expectations. Implied vol in March SRW finished at 20%, Matif Wheat was up 0.5€ to 204.5€, Black Sea Wheat was up 0.5$ to 248$ and the Ruble was up 0.51% to 0.015. Rainfall in Argentina poses threats to unharvested wheat, which the world market has a heavy reliance on. For now, the market is comfortable that it can sustain the rain, but time will tell.


Corn finished fractions higher trading a 2.75 cent range, with surprisingly low volatility in the presence of the WASDE. The USDA cut ethanol usage by 1.27mmt and increased ending stocks to 45.2mmt, which was 1mmt above trade ideas. They increased Ukraine production 1.5mmt and left South American production unchanged, although CONAB were also out, calling for a 0.6 increase in Brazilian crop. China’s plans to triple their ethanol capacity by 2020 suggests greater import demand, but its too political to get excited about for now.


Soybeans finished with moderate gains, but the USDA did not provide much of a lead, choosing to leave demand unchanged and not speculate on a US-China resolution. Soybean Meal was up US$0.80 per tonne and Soy oil was up 0.19 points.


Aussie markets took on a firmer tone in the East Coast yesterday with reduced grower liquidity and the trade’s focus starting to shift to the expiration of Jan track and ASX contracts.  Sorghum prices softened on the perception of rainfall, but as stated previously this seems short sighted.

Source: Lachstock Consulting



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