SRW and HRW wheat markets sold off hard. The oilseeds firmed.
- Chicago March 2024 wheat down 22.25c/bu to US609.5c/bu;
- Kansas March 2024 wheat down 28.75c/bu to 632.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis March 2024 wheat down 17.75c/bu to 711.75c/bu;
- MATIF wheat March 2024 down €2/t to €228.25/t;
- Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August;
- Corn March 2024 down 4c/bu to 481.5c/bu;
- Soybeans May 2024 up 27.75c/bu to 1365c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$12.80/t to C$687/t;
- MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €4.25/t to €448.50/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat down A$8/t to $390/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley unchanged at A$325/t;
- AUD dollar down 9 points to US$0.6568.
The US wheat market sell off indicates that the market thinks the recent run of China purchases is over for now, with US SRW less competitive and the theory that the bulk of the sales were made in November when prices were lower.
Safras & Mercado cut its 2023-24 Brazil soybean production forecast by 3.2Mt to 158.2Mt (160.2Mt Conab Dec). As at 8 December, the 2023-24 soybean sales volume was estimated at 27pc of projected production (37pc long-term average).
Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports that for the week ending 8 December total cumulative exports are at 14Mt (-27pc from previous year), including wheat at 6.1Mt (-15pc), maize at 6.8Mt (-34pc) and barley at 0.9Mt (-40pc).
Russia has banned durum exports Until 31 May 2024, aimed at maintaining stable prices for durum wheat products in the domestic market. Durum may be exported to Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan within the quotas set by the government.
The Royal Navy is reportedly transferring two Mine Counter Measure Vessels (MCMVs) to Ukraine to counter Russia’s covert mine planting. Mines have recently damaged at least three ships, and Ukraine says the number could be as high as nine. The transfer of the MCMVs is part of an initiative to help Ukraine export grain and to ensure security in the northwestern Black Sea.
Argentina’s new President Milei took office on Sunday, warning in his first official speech he had no alternative to a sharp, painful fiscal shock to fix the country’s worst economic crisis in decades. “There is no alternative to a shock adjustment,” he said. “There is no money. The outgoing government has left us on track towards hyperinflation. We are going to do everything we can to avoid such a catastrophe.”
Tunisia’s state grains office is reportedly seeking 100kt soft wheat, 75kt durum and 50kt barley.
Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender (27 Dec) to purchase 50kt milling wheat.
Algeria’s OAIC seeks (12 Dec) 50kt milling wheat from optional origins, Feb/Mar shipment.
US private exporters reported sales of 132kt soybeans to unknown destinations during the 2023-24 marketing year.
Local markets started the week with a softer tone with upcountry values slipping $2-4/t depending on grade. ASX Jan 24 wheat was also slightly softer, settling at $390/t. The rainfall forecast has eased, with the 8-day totals for southern cropping zones in SA, Vic and NSW now mostly expected to be below 10mm.
GrainCorp received 1.37Mt in the week ending 11 December, taking total receivals to 6.47Mt. Harvest activity is finished in Qld and mostly done in northern NSW. Southern NSW and Vic experienced a resurgence of activity with clear and drier weather conditions across the state. Despite a slowdown in activity due to weekend rain, growers are hoping to build momentum back up in the coming days. The GrainCorp network in Victoria recorded its biggest day of receivals for the season, with a record 230,000t grain delivered in one day across the state.