The day ahead

Weather – Rain… heaps of it. The US HRW belt has solved plenty of problems. nothing to see there. French planting caught up over the last week and they have another week to get the balance of their winter crop in – then it gets super wet. Nothing meaningful for Black Sea in terms of rain. Dry in Argy corn areas but thats pretty much it.

Markets – Global markets are still trying to unpack what it means to have Donald in the big house. uncertainty reigns. AUD struggles to overcome the idea that Donald is going to keep the hammer down in China. Veg oil is firm despite RFK keen to ban seed oil in fast food. What happens to imported Chinese cooking oil that has been working into the bio channel?

Australian day ahead – Lower AUD, variable quality, firm truck freight driving delivered values, solid pulse demand. Russian cash was quoted slightly lower which should keep domestic wheat in check today.

Offshore

Most of the US reports were pushed back a day given the govt Veterans Day holiday.

Offsetting gains in wheat production this year from Australia, Kazakhstan, US, Canada and Argentina, big declines were recorded in EU and Russia. Click on image to expand.

 More questions than answers regarding the impact of Donald having the keys to the White House. US stocks clearly love it with the Dow up just under 5pc since he got the nod. Bitcoin loves it after Donald said he wants the US to be the Crypto global leader. However, agriculture is less clear. RFK’s focus on making America healthy again has some potentially large implications for trade flows and price. RFK has indicated he would like to ban seed oil in fast food, preferring to use tallow instead. According to NW Biofuel, fast food accounts for around 10pc of US domestic consumption of soyoil.
Wheat, corn and beans all will struggle from a US futures perspective if the strong USD continues. Oct CPI will be out on 14 November and expected to be pretty flat. This will be a focus with Trump’s detractors confident his management will lead to sharply higher inflation. It is potentially the challenge for Trump because a higher USD, coupled with increased inflation and subsequently upward pressure on rates would be negative for US commodity values.