Russia said it will return to the Black Sea grain deal on the same day as Moscow’s conditions for export of its grain and fertilisers are met.  “When all the necessary actions for removing obstacles for our grain and fertilizer exports are implemented, the same day we will return to the collective implementation of the Ukrainian part of the Black Sea initiative,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a press briefing after attending the G20 summit in New Delhi.  

The Ukraine Deputy Economy Minister said the government would be prepared to file a complaint at the World Trade Organisation if Poland were to introduce a unilateral ban on Ukrainian grain. 

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will make an official visit to Russia in the coming days at the invitation of Russian President Putin. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Pesident Putin would host a state lunch for Mr Kim and the two would meet one on one if necessary. He said the two would discuss bilateral relations. “We seek to build good, mutually beneficial relations with North Korea,” Mr Peskov said. 

Ukraine Agriculture Ministry reported that as at 8 September 2023-24 wheat harvest has yielded 22.1Mt (average yield 4.7t/ha) barley at 5.8Mt (3.9t/ha) and canola at 4Mt (2.9t/ha).

It said cumulative 2023-24 exports for the week ending 8 September at 5.1Mt were down 4pc from the same period last year. Wheat was 2.3Mt (+39pc), maize 2.2Mt (-30pc) and barley 0.5Mt (+18pc). 

The weekly Alberta Crop Report noted dry conditions had helped harvest in the southern half of the province. It reported slow progress in the Northwest and Northeast areas where cool and wet conditions delayed maturity, as well as causing lodging and difficulties accessing fields. Spring wheat harvest was 36pc complete (39pc year ago), barley 46pc (55pc) and canola 10pc (8pc). The provincial yield index is currently estimated to be 12pc below the 5-year average, with the best yields noted in the Northwest regions where productivity is seen 12pc above the five-year average. In the South and Central regions, crop yields are currently estimated to be 32pc and 21pc below the 5-year yield index, respectively.

The September WASDE will be released today – all eyes will be on corn and soybean yield estimates, China demand and production estimates for major wheat exporters including Australia. In its August report USDA left Australian production unchanged at 29Mt which is much higher than most local estimates.

Australia

Local markets began the week slightly firmer. Current crop ASW1 wheat in WA was up a few bucks, trading on Clear Grain Exchange A$405/t FIS. Wheat markets were quieter in eastern Australia, but Victorian growers began to engage in marketing new crop wheat at about $417/t track. Barley delivered Darling Downs was left bid side at $470/t for Jan plus carry, looking for offers. 

According to July ABS data Australia exported 2.7Mt wheat in July, up 6pc from June. The biggest destination was Indonesia taking 637kt, just ahead of China which took 629kt and The Philippines came in third with 460kt.