Firmer European markets saw MATIF wheat up 5pc, rapeseed up 2pc, while US futures firmed 1-2pc.
- Chicago wheat May contract up US22.5cents per bushel to 1103.75c/bu;
- Kansas wheat May contract up 20.75c/bu to 1162.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat May up 14.25c/bu to 1156.25c/bu;
- MATIF wheat May contract up €19.75/t to €399.25/t;
- Black Sea wheat July contract up $3.25/t to $360/t;
- Corn May contract up 11.75c/bu to 776.25c/bu;
- Soybeans May contract up 15c/bu to 1670.25c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$6.20 /t to $1018.70/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €18.25/t to €816/t;
- ASX July 2022 wheat contract up A$6.50/t to A$405/t;
- ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $3/t to $413/t;
- AUD dollar firmer at US$0.745.
Egypt’s GASC tendered to buy wheat overnight and, in a strange market twist, the offers it received were from both Russia and Ukraine. While the list of approved sellers to GASC is Russia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, France, Germany, Poland, Romania, Serbia and Latvia, reports of the Egyptians flying to India may lead to India being added. India has been at pains to let the world know, given its bumper harvest, it is open for business and happy to offer wheat.
US March inflation figures were 8.5pc, the highest in 40 years.
The next escalation in the Ukraine seems imminent, with reports of massive Russian troop movement to the east. If we have learnt one thing from this conflict it has been the market reacts to escalation. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reiterated a call for the European Union’s next package of sanctions on Russia to include oil as well as all banks. He said EU member states should declare when they plan to stop importing Russian energy. Crude was up just under US$1/bbl and sits at US$101/bbl – some US$30/bbl off the highs printed early March.
US President Biden, facing choices between dealing with inflation in energy prices and in food prices, seems to have chosen to hose down the rise in energy prices. The Administration announced expanded use of ethanol E15 blend through the US summer, resulting in US corn demand for processing into ethanol increasing by something like 8-45Mbu. Offers of corn from Argentina are the only thing stopping corn going bananas.
Local wheat, barley and canola markets came alive yesterday, booking stronger values across the board. Current crop wheat lifted $3-5/t and new crop wheat firmed $5-10/t. Canola current crop firmed $15/t in WA and eastern Australian new crop firmed $15-20/t.
April vessel lineups continued to build with 4.2Mt on the stem nationally. The May lineup already has >1Mt on the WA stem. Wait times have improved in Esperance, Geraldton and Newcastle this week, but are worse in Port Kembla and Albany. The situation in most other ports is unchanged, meaning congestion is above normal at Geelong, Kwinana and Brisbane with 2-3 week waiting times.
We have seen welcome rain in the past 2 days for Western Australia cropping regions especially in Esperance zone and parts of the Albany zone, with most receiving 25mm+. These falls make a great start to the 22/23 cropping season, and more forecast over the next 5-8 days.