Markets

Daily Market Wire 13 February 2024

Lachstock Consulting, February 13, 2024

ASX eastern wheat regained last week’s losses. Global overnight markets were little changed.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat up US0.75c/bu to 597.5c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat down 2.75c/bu to 598.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat down 1.75c/bu to 682.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 down €1/t to €208.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 up 1c/bu to 442.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 7.75c/bu to 1197.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$1.70/t to C$598.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €3.75/t to €421.75/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat up A$9/t to $367.50/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 6 points to US$0.6530

International

Agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado cut its 2023-24 Brazil soybean production forecast by 2.3Mt to 149.1Mt (Conab 149.4Mt, USDA 156Mt). 

Shipping analyst Kpler reported that in the week ending 9 Feb, a further 13 vessels, were diverted away from the Red Sea to sail around the Cape of Good Hope. Since December, up to 5.2Mt of grains on 90 ships have been rerouted. However, cargoes originating in the Black Sea, mainly from Russia and the EU (Romania), were continuing to travel through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, with only three vessels believed to have been diverted. 

The International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva in Dubai at the World Governments Summit warned that the continued war in Gaza and related confrontations, such as attacks in the Red Sea, pose a threat to the stability of the global economy. “I fear most a longevity of the conflict because, if it goes on and on, the risk of spillover goes up,” Ms Georgieva said. 

According to Ukraine’s State Customs Service, for the week ending 8 Feb, grain exports totalled 820,000 tonnes, including 420,200t wheat, 395,000t maize and 4,200t barley. Cumulative 2023-24 (Jul/Jun) shipments estimated at 24.8Mt, with wheat at 9.8Mt (-3pc), maize 13.6Mt (-20pc) and barley 1.4Mt (-20pc).
 

Farmers in the southern Ukraine (Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions) have started spring grain sowing, planting the first hectares of spring barley. Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi told Reuters on Friday that the ministry expected the 2024 spring sowing area to be the same as last year although spring wheat could see an increase due to a decline in 2024-25 winter wheat area.

Australia

East coast upcountry values continue to lack any direction. The grind in values is not bringing forward any major selling events. Notably though, ASX was firmer yesterday with March 24 closing at A$367.50/t which was a $9/t increase over the course of the day. 

Port congestion increased across most major ports this week with the longest average wait times increasing to 17-20 days. Although average wait times at Kwinana and Esperance decreased this week. There are currently 13 vessels loading and 13 anchored at Australian ports.

 

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