Markets

Daily Market Wire 13 May 2024

Lachstock Consulting, May 13, 2024

Wheat and corn firmed at least 2 percent.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat up US23c/bu to 705.25c/bu
  • Kansas December 2024 wheat up 19c/bu to 705c/bu
  • Minneapolis December 2024 wheat up 14.5c/bu to 739c/bu
  • MATIF wheat December 2024 up €4/t to €254.25/t;
  • Corn December 2024 up 12c/bu to 492c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2024 up 5.25c/bu to 1205.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2024 up C$10.50/t to $681.60/t
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2024 up €5.75/t to €489/t
  • ASX January 2025 wheat unchanged at $380/t
  • ASX January 2025 barley down $4.60/t to $325.40/t
  • AUD dollar down 17 points to US$0.6603.

International

Friday’s USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates had no major surprises for US wheat or soybeans, but a reduction in corn ending stocks for both crop years saw corn prices make solid gains after the release. US all-wheat production was considered slightly bullish, with the production estimate below the average trade guess. For global corn numbers, both old and new-crop ending stocks were revised lower, with 2023-24 down 5 million tonnes (Mt) at 313Mt, and 2024-25 revised to 312Mt, 5Mt below expectations. Brazil’s corn crop was cut by 3Mt to 122Mt, still well above CONAB at 112Mt. Argentina’s corn crop was cut by 2Mt to 53Mt, 1Mt above expectations. Brazil’s soybean crop was cut by just 1Mt to 154Mt, still 7.5Mt higher than CONAB. The wheat market was already higher before the reports release on concerns of major frost damage in Russia but the USDA came out with a 88Mt for 2024-25 Russian production, which was considered low for their first estimate. World wheat ending stocks for 2024-25 came in 3.8Mt lower than expected at 253.6Mt.

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange report for the week ending May 9 put Argentina’s corn harvest at 23pc versus 21pc at this time last year, with conditions rated 58pc fair to excellent vs 60pc in the previous week, and 45pc in the previous year. Harvest is progressing slowly due to high grain moisture. In some areas, farmers have started two weeks earlier than normal to avoid further losses from disease spread by leafhoppers. Argentina’s soybean harvest was 48pc complete against 52pc last year. Harvesting of early sown crops in the central region is accelerating, with above-average yields along the western margin. For second plantings, good results were also noted in the northern and southern core regions. However, yields have been below expected in the north-east. BAGE put the sorghum harvest at 34pc complete, with good results so far.

The Saskatchewan Crop Report for the week ending May 6 notes that 2024-25 spring seeding is under way, and around 6pc complete, vs 9pc in the previous year, and 23pc as the five-year average. This includes spring wheat at 12pc, durum 20pc, barley 12pc and canola 6pc. Although recent rain has caused delays to seeding, it has allowed moisture conditions to improve across the province

FranceAgrMer reports that as at May 6, the 2024-25 common wheat crop was rated 64pc good to excellent vs 63pc in the previous week, and 94pc in the previous year, durum at 65pc (66pc, 88pc), winter barley at 66pc (66pc, 92pc) and spring barley at 74pc (74pc, 95pc). Maize planting was 54pc complete (73pc previous year, 82pc average).

Japan’s MAFF has reportedly purchased 114,077t of milling wheat including 25,617 tonnes of minimum 14pc protein DNS, 11,145t of WW and 9830t of HRW from the US, 35,090t of minimum 13.5pc protein CWRS from Canada, and 32,395t of ASW from Australia, all for July-August loading.

Australia

Western Australian current-crop wheat and barley markets closed last week with a stronger tone, with offshore strength assisting local values. APW1 in the Kwinana zone traded up to $400-$405/t free in store late in the day, H2 around $405/t FIS and H1 $410/t FIS. Barley values consolidated at $357/t FIS for feed and $363/t for Maxi1 malting. New-crop canola bids were a tick off the highs to close at $775/t FIS, and new-season wheat bids remained in the range $405-$410/t FIS for all port zones.

We have seen some impressive rainfall totals over the weekend across New South Wales, particularly in some central and southern areas, which picked up a widespread 15-100mm. Central Victoria picked up 5-50mm but western Vic largely missed out. Southern Qld saw some patchy totals of 5-50mm and parts of southern WA generally picked up less than 10mm. Unfortunately, South Australia has seen another dry week and the eight-day forecast is currently looking dry for all winter-cropping regions.

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