Markets

Daily Market Wire 13 October 2022

Lachstock Consulting, October 13, 2022

Offshore grain markets continued lower. Oilseeds gained a little.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US18.75 cents per bushel to 882.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 20.75c at 970c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 18.5c/bu to 966.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €2.75/t to €353.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down $0.75/t to $334.25/t;
  • Corn December contract unchanged at 693c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 19.75c/bu to 1396c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2022 contract was up C$5.60 to $864.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €2.75/t to €633/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down A$2/t to $478/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged  at A$339/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.628.

International

USDA released the Oct reports. Summary was largely supportive. Wheat now has a tighter corn balance sheet to leverage off but, as we have clearly seen this week, wheat direction is largely linked to the ebb and flow of the Russian/Ukraine war  

Headline changes are as follows:- 
Corn US corn saw lower supplies, increased feed and residual use, lower exports and ethanol which resulted in US ending stocks moving from 1.219 bbu to 1.172bbu. World corn called for lower production, mixed exports which ended with corn stocks dropping from 304.5Mt to 301.2Mt. 

Soybeans US soybean production fell via lower yield which was partially offset by higher carry in. Exports were dropped but crush was bumped up and the net result was unchanged ending stocks. Global soybean ending stocks were slightly higher driven by Brazil.

Wheat US wheat was all down – production, domestic use, exports and stocks. USDA cited the noncompetitive nature of US wheat prices and reduced exports accordingly. Net result of all the changes was a lower ending stocks to 576mbu – the lowest since 2007/08. Global wheat was a similar story. Lower supplies, consumption, trade and stocks. Result was a 1Mt reduction of ending stocks.
 

Impossible to decipher the western take on the progress of the war but reports overnight show the Ukrainians making headway, liberating 5 villages in the south. Such is the nature of this dispute, any advances by the Ukraine return the focus to “what does Vlad do next” and the concern over his Nuclear trump card.
The scary sound bite from Pres Biden’s interview yesterday where he indicated he didn’t think Vlad would unleash nuclear weapons – but clearly indicated that even a small nuclear escalation would lead to a western response.
 A chilling reminder of the situation at home in the US with “what to do if there is a nuclear attack” adds running in New York City.

Australia

It is all about the weather. Unfortunately, forecasts have built more rainfall into Vic and southern NSW with warnings for supercell/tornados being issued for Thursday.

East coast markets have been extremely quiet with both buyers and sellers waiting to see what this means for quality.
 The GIAV crop tour is underway with the first day showing the potential of the Vic crop. The tour also indicates that the crop is at least a few weeks behind normal which creates a gap between old crop and new crop that will have some endusers nervous.
 ASX wheat (ie min APW) traded to A$478 yesterday while SFW1 delivered Melbourne was quoted at $400 bid for Jan and this reflects the genuine concern around protein availability into the harvest slot.

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