International

USDA increased corn yields in the US to a record high 183.6bu/ac, up from 183.1bu, and above the average trade estimate of 182.4bu. USDA’s production estimate is now the second-largest in history at 15.186 billion bushels. Larger new-crop production was offset by a reduction in carry-in following an increase in old-crop exports and ethanol demand. The US corn harvest is 5 percent complete. The main changes to the USDA global corn dataset was a reduction in the China import number, reduced by 2 million tonnes (Mt) to 21Mt, and EU production was cut by 1.5Mt.

Soybean yields were left unchanged at 53.2bu/ac, in line with the average trade estimate. No major changes we made to the US old-crop and new-crop balance sheets.

For wheat, it was more the global numbers the market was eagerly awaiting. China imports were maintained at 12Mt, Australian production was raised 2Mt to 32Mt, while Canada held at 35Mt but exports were lifted 1Mt to 26Mt. The necessary adjustment was EU production, down 4Mt to 124Mt, with exports down from 34Mt to 31.5Mt.

Heightened concerns exist over supply in the Black Sea export zones, with overnight reports of a bulk carrier carrying Ukraine grain bound for Egypt being struck by missile and damaged just after it left Ukrainian territorial waters.

Egypt purchased 430,000t of Russian wheat for October shipment in a private deal, which is outside of the typical tender process.

Stratégie Grains further reduced its production forecast for soft wheat in the EU in 2024 to a 12-year low of 114.4Mt, down from 116.5Mt. Barley production was also cut by 100,000t to 50.5Mt and corn production was cut by 2.1Mt to 57.9Mt. The French wheat production estimate within this was reduced by 600,000t to 25Mt, which would be the smallest since 1983.

Canada’s canola harvest is running slightly behind normal pace, and yield reports have been mostly disappointing, which has led to most production estimates now around or just shy of 19Mt. In the short-term there is also a wetter bias for Alberta and North Saskatchewan, which would not aid harvest pace and could start to raise some potential quality concerns.

Australia

Canola bids stopped the downward trend of the past two days to remain unchanged at around A$760/t free in store for most port zones in Western Australia. Cereals found some more support, with bids up around $3/t for both wheat and barley.

It was a similar story in the east of Australia, with canola bids unchanged at around $704/t and cereal bids similar to Wednesday.

In what is becoming the theme for this season, weather models have now pulled back rainfall predictions for what looked to be some needed rain over cropping regions in the next 14 days, with a large percentage of South Australia’s cropping regions currently sitting on the driest growing season recorded.