International

Egypt’s GASC reportedly is in negotiations with Russia to purchase 30 consignments of around 50-60kt of wheat in direct negotiations without issuing a new international tender. 

According to the head of the Russian Grain Union, ongoing profitability issues due to soft global prices, recent weather problems, high local export duties and prohibitive interest rates on bank loans, could result in the area sown to wheat declining further in 2025-26. 

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon has pegged August grain exports at 5.3Mt (4.5Mt previous month, 6.1Mt Aug 2023), including wheat at 4.7Mt (3.6Mt, 5.3Mt) and barley at 0.5Mt (0.6Mt, 0.6Mt). 

According to the Ukraine Ag Ministry, as at 8 August 2024-25 grains and oilseeds harvest had yielded 30.6Mt, including 20.9Mt of wheat from 4.7m ha (equivalent to 97pc of total area), 5.2Mt of barley from 1.4m ha (98pc) and 3.3Mt of canola from 1.2m ha (99pc). 

Brazil’s Conab reports that as at 11 August, 2023-24 first (full-season) maize harvest was complete. Second (safrinha) maize crop was 95pc complete (91pc, 72pc). Total corn production was revised down 0.21Mt to 115.65Mt (USDA 121Mt). 2024-25 wheat harvest was 7pc complete (5pc, 4pc), mainly in Minas Gerais, where dryland crops were showing lower than expected yields and quality. In the main southern producing areas, fields in Rio Grande do Sul generally were in good condition, but with crop size below potential. In Paraná, where most crops are in the grain filling stage, poor conditions were restricting development. 

The Rosario Grains Exchange reports that below freezing temps in recent days have impacted the wheat crop in Argentina’s western agricultural regions, where the crop is already suffering from a lack of rain and extreme cold spells. 

China’s pig prices are expected to fall in the second half of the year amid ample supplies and sluggish demand. China’s most active soymeal and rapeseed meal futures fell to their lowest level in more than a year on Tuesday as high soymeal inventory and a forecast of record US soybean production added to expectations of abundant supplies. 

Reuters reports the Argentine government ordered a 15-day suspension to industrial action by two oilseed workers unions. The secretary for the San Lorenzo Department Oilseed Workers and Employees Union confirmed that the order was received and would comply with calls for mandatory reconciliation talks. 

Algeria’s OAIC seeks 50kt of durum for Oct/Nov shipment in an international tender. 

Jordan reportedly purchased 60kt of wheat at US$259.90/t in a tender that closed on Tuesday. 

US private exporters reported sales of 132kt of soybeans to China during the 2024-25 marketing year and 137,160 tonnes of corn to Mexico.

Australia

Canola values in the west worked slightly lower again yesterday losing around A$3/t across the board. Cereal bids were also slightly lower for both new and old crop. 

It was a similar state of affairs for bids in the east, with canola values down slightly. Eastern wheat values were down $2-3/t yesterday. Old crop demand continues to find offers at this stage and we continue to grind out the inverse. Showers through the eastern states will be very welcome this week with most zones set to pick up 10-20mm which will shape yield prospects for large parts of SA and Vic. 

Line ups data this week shows there is currently 1.92Mt of total grain on the stem, up slightly from 1.81Mt last week. Wheat is up at 1.03Mt, barley is unchanged at 261kt, canola is down to 291kt, and sorghum is down slightly to 234kt. There are currently low vessel numbers which is reflected in port congestion, with Port Lincoln the only port where there is a wait time (2 days). There are currently only 4 vessels loading and 0 anchored.