Markets

Daily Market Wire 14 May 2024

Lachstock Consulting, May 14, 2024

Wheat firmed 3 percent in overnight trading.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat up US23.25c/bu to 728.5c/bu;
  • Kansas December 2024 wheat up 27.25c/bu to 732.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis December 2024 wheat up 18.25c/bu to 757.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2024 up €8.50/t to €262.75/t;
  • Corn December 2024 up 3c/bu to 493c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2024 up 6.5c/bu to 1212.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2024 up C$5.40/t to $687/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2024 up €3/t to €492/t;
  • ASX January 2025 wheat up $3/t to $383/t;
  • ASX January 2025 barley up $1.60/t to $337/t;
  • AUD dollar up 5 points to US$0.6608.

International

Russia’s IKAR agricultural consultancy has cut its 2024-25 Russian wheat crop by 5 million tonnes (Mt) to 86Mt and cut exports by 3.5Mt to 47Mt. SovEcon has cut their wheat number by 3.4Mt to 89.6Mt versus 92.8Mt in 2023-24.

Interfax news agency reports that acting Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev has said that Russia’s harvest in 2024 will be ample to maintain food security, despite recent frosts after three key grain-growing areas declared a state of emergency due to May frosts.

World Weather Inc. reportedly estimates that permanent wheat damage from recent freezes is not likely to be more than 6 percent, while winter rapeseed is likely suffered damage on 40pc of crop area. However, a much larger part of Russia’s Southern Region, eastern Ukraine and western Kazakhstan is dealing with drought. Lost wheat production because of drought could be many times greater than from recent frost events.

Multiple rain events are forecast to push across the US during the next 10 days, keeping planting to a minimum in the wettest areas. The lower Midwest, Delta and South-east will be the wettest. HRW wheat areas received rains during the weekend, though not enough to end the dryness in west-central and southwestern locations.

The Alberta Crop Report notes that for the week ending May 7, warmer than normal conditions over much of the province benefited fieldwork, with 2024-25 sowing estimated to be 18pc complete vs a five-year average 12pc, including spring wheat at 23pc, durum at 47pc, barley at 19pc, maize at 32pc and canola at 6pc. Seeding was reportedly ahead of normal in all regions. Fieldwork commenced in mid-April and, while soil temperatures remained cool, recent advances were driven by anticipated rainfall across growing areas and warmer conditions in the coming period. Provincial soil moisture rated at 84pc fair to good.

According to the Food Corporation of India, wheat stocks in India’s government warehouses on May 1 were down 10pc year on year at 26Mt, the lowest since 2008.

Australia

Local markets continue to follow offshore strength with the ASX July 24 wheat contract ending the day up A$6.50/t to kick off the week at $368/t. While conditions in Queensland and New South Wales are mostly excellent, the dry conditions are really starting to become a problem in western Victoria, South Australia and central and northern Western Australia. Without any decent rain by the end of May, we will start to see planting intentions drop back.

 

 

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