Markets

Daily Market Wire 15 June 2020

Lachstock Consulting, June 15, 2020

Friday’s markets closed higher to retrace some of the week’s losses.

  • Chicago wheat July contract up US2.75 cents per bushel to 502c;
  • Kansas wheat July contract up 1.5c to 448.50c;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract steady at 513.25c;
  • Corn July up 0.25c to 330c;
  • Soybeans July contract up 5.25c to 871.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola July contract up C$1.60 per tonne to C$469.40;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €1/t to €183.50;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract up €2/t to €377.75;
  • Brent crude August contract up US$0.18 per barrel to $38.73;
  • Dow Jones index up 477 points 25,606;
  • AUD higher at US$0.6867;
  • CAD lower at $1.3585;
  • EUR lower at $1.12567.

Markets

Wheat markets managed to finish the week on an uptick.  However, from Monday to Friday’s close the Chicago Dec 2020 wheat contract lost 17c/bu. Charts across all the wheat contracts all look heavy, with many contracts at or near key support levels. This is significant given the northern hemisphere is about to get into full harvest mode. This is particularly important for the Russian crop, given estimates on production range from 74 to 82 million tonnes, the difference being felt one for one in exports. There are a few little areas of concern such as Argentina wheat, which has had close to zero rainfall in much of the winter wheatbelt for the past month. Argentina is forecast to get up to 75 millimetres in the southern belt, but northern areas are still struggling for meaningful moisture. Some early concern surrounds spring wheat areas of Kazakhstan and Russia, but they still have plenty of time.

There are always points in the calendar that warrant attention, and June is a big one. From a report perspective, USDA’s 30 June stocks and acreage report is meaningful as it will give some framework to row-crop production and, given the planting window was COVID central, there could be a meaningful miss versus market assumptions. Additionally, June is a crucial weather month. This year is even more confusing with the fallout of COVID, riots, civil unrest, China/US/Australia tension and the subsequent noise around currency.

Australia

Australian growers received some welcomed widespread rainfall over the weekend through the majority of cropping areas. Northern New South Wales and Queensland had falls of up to 20mm, while South Australia got up to 15mm. The next eight-day forecast remains positive for more rain. Markets remained relatively flat last week with some directionless moves. New-crop prices have fallen AU$6-8/t on wheat in Victorian delivered markets, and Darling Downs prices were unchanged for the July plus slot. We start the week with a lower Australian dollar, and good rain in the past 48 hour might prompt some selling activity.
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