Wheat markets managed to finish the week on an uptick.  However, from Monday to Friday’s close the Chicago Dec 2020 wheat contract lost 17c/bu. Charts across all the wheat contracts all look heavy, with many contracts at or near key support levels. This is significant given the northern hemisphere is about to get into full harvest mode. This is particularly important for the Russian crop, given estimates on production range from 74 to 82 million tonnes, the difference being felt one for one in exports. There are a few little areas of concern such as Argentina wheat, which has had close to zero rainfall in much of the winter wheatbelt for the past month. Argentina is forecast to get up to 75 millimetres in the southern belt, but northern areas are still struggling for meaningful moisture. Some early concern surrounds spring wheat areas of Kazakhstan and Russia, but they still have plenty of time.

There are always points in the calendar that warrant attention, and June is a big one. From a report perspective, USDA’s 30 June stocks and acreage report is meaningful as it will give some framework to row-crop production and, given the planting window was COVID central, there could be a meaningful miss versus market assumptions. Additionally, June is a crucial weather month. This year is even more confusing with the fallout of COVID, riots, civil unrest, China/US/Australia tension and the subsequent noise around currency.