Refinitiv Commodities Research trimmed its 2023-24 Ukraine wheat production number slightly to 20.6Mt, reflecting the impact of flooding from the Kakhova dam breach. Output excluding uncontrolled regions (Crimea, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Kherson) is pegged at 16.8Mt. 2023-24 rapeseed output is forecast at 3.6Mt (3.0Mt excluding uncontrolled regions) and total maize production placed at 22.9Mt (22.6Mt).

The Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development crop report, for the week ending 13 June, reports that rainfall was variable across the province, with isolated storms bringing significant rainfall to western areas. Since 1 May, some western areas have received more than 120pc of normal precipitation, while rains in much of the Central and Interlake regions are less than 60pc of the 30-year average. 2023-24 seeding is largely complete, aside from some fields that may need re-planting following recent storms. Fields in the southwest are being assessed for storm damage, with cereal crops looking reasonable, while canola, soybeans and sunflowerseed may have been significantly affected. 

European Commission data shows that for the week ending 11 June, EU all-wheat exports are at 31.1Mt, 10pc higher than the previous year. Maize imports are at 24.4Mt (+60pc) and Barley exports at 9.2Mt (-6pc). 

According to the French Farm Ministry, 2023-24 rapeseed production is forecast at 4.6Mt (+3pc y/y, +18pc from 5-year avg), winter barley production seen at 9.1Mt (+7pc, +12pc).

ANEC Brazil have revised up their June soybean export estimate by 1.7Mt, to 14.8Mt, soymeal exports lifted by 0.2Mt, to 2.5Mt, while corn exports were revised down by 0.1Mt, to 1.6Mt. 

Taiwan traders reportedly purchased 56,000 tonnes of milling wheat from the US including DNS (min. 14.5pc protein content) $368.30/t c&f, HRW (12.5pc) at $343.27/t c&f and soft white wheat (8.5pc-10.0pc) $304.96/t c&f. 

Australia

Liquidity picked up yesterday, with local markets finding some common ground through wheat, barley and canola with bids and offers coming together and happy to trade. Trades were a mixed bag of current crop, with malt barley in WA to more canola being let go in the east coast. Current crop wheat market values were largely unchanged and continue to track sideways along with new crop. Barley was also relatively unchanged, while canola current crop and new crop markets were bid up $10/t.

There is more rain on the 8-day forecast with southern regions looking to pick up the higher totals again. Most of SA and Vic are looking at 10-25mm, while southern WA is looking at 5-15mm. Most of NSW and southern Qld where rain is needed the most only have 1-5mm on the forecast.