Markets

Daily Market Wire 15 May 2024

Lachstock Consulting, May 15, 2024

French wheat and Winnipeg canola eased 3 percent.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat down US11.25c/bu to 717.25c/bu;
  • Kansas December 2024 wheat down 14.5c/bu to 717.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis December 2024 wheat down 1.75c/bu to 755.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2024 down €7.75/t to €255/t;
  • Corn December 2024 down 2c/bu to 491c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2024 down 7.25c/bu to 1205c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2024 down C$13.20/t to $673.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2024 down €7/t to €485/t;
  • ASX January 2025 wheat up $11/t to $394/t;
  • ASX January 2025 barley up $3/t to $340/t;
  • AUD dollar up 19 points to US$0.6627.

International

Brazil’s Conab has revised up its 2023-24 soybean crop by 1.2 million tonnes (Mt) to 147.7Mt. Corn production was raised 600,000t to 111.6Mt, both still well below USDA numbers. As at May 12, the 2023-24 soybean harvest was 96pc complete vs 97pc in the previous year, with heavy rainfall preventing fieldwork in Rio Grande do Sul, while also lowering productivity and quality. Losses could reach between 20pc and 100pc, depending on the localised severity of the flood and the stage of crop development. Brazil’s first  maize harvest is 68pc complete vs 72pc a year ago, as dry weather in Mato Grosso aided fieldwork, albeit with crop losses seen in Rio Grande do Sul due to the floods. Wheat planting is 21pc complete vs 25pc a year ago.

South American crop consultant Dr Michael Cordonnier cut his Argentine soybean crop by 1Mt to 50Mt due to disappointing yields in far northern and far southern production areas, and the potential for frost impacts on some later-developing soybeans. After the recent string of cuts to the Argentine corn crop due to losses from corn stunt disease, Cordonnier left his estimate at 47Mt. He has a neutral to lower bias toward both crops in Argentina. For Brazil, his estimates were unchanged at 147Mt for soybeans and 112Mt for corn.

The US’ National Oilseeds Processors Association is advocating for higher tariffs on Chinese used cooking oil (UCO), which it claims undermines US crops used for biofuels. NOPA seeks to raise the current 15.5pc levy to match tariffs on other clean energy sources. US soybean processors are concerned that increased imports of used cooking oil are eroding their profits and jeopardising plans to expand US crushing capacity for biofuels. However, UCO is not mentioned in the fact sheet, nor is it addressed in an accompanying statement outlining new tariff increases.

According to scouts on the first day of the Wheat Quality Council’s annual crop tour, Kansas HRW wheat yields were estimated above a year ago, thanks to rains late last year that boosted fields before conditions recently turned drier. Yields were estimated at 43.6 bu/acre after nine stops on one route. That’s up from 37.7 bu/acre on the same route last year.

Japan’s MAFF is seeking 121,516t of wheat from the US, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.

US private exporters reported sales of 405,000t of corn to Mexico. Of the total, 135,000t is for delivery during the 2023-24 marketing year and 270,000t for 2024-25.

Australia

Local markets continue to follow the offshore moves higher with cereals up around A$5-$7/t for both track and delivered. The increase in values has flushed some grower sellers out, with liquidity picking up. Canola values were also firmer but we are seeing limited stocks impact liquidity.

The BOM’s Climate Driver Update released yesterday notes that there are some early signs that a La Niña might form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024, with their ENSO Outlook shifting to La Niña Watch. Modelling suggests that ENSO will likely remain neutral until at least July 2024. When La Niña Watch criteria have been met in the past, a La Niña event has subsequently developed around half the time. The update also noted that current sea surface-temperature observations suggest that the recent development of a positive IOD may have stalled.

This week’s line-ups data shows 2.84Mt of total grain on the stem, down from 2.88Mt last week. Wheat is showing 1.52Mt, down from 1.65Mt, barley remains the same at 481,000t, canola is up from 725,000t to 776,000t, and sorghum remains unchanged at 60,000t. Overall average vessel wait time is less than 10 days, with four vessels anchored and seven loading at Australian grain ports.

 

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