Daily Market Wire 15 November 2023

Lachstock Consulting, November 15, 2023

US currency spiked lower. Commodities markets were mixed.

  • Chicago December wheat down US7c/bu to 572c/bu;
  • Kansas December wheat down 1.75c/bu to 639.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec wheat up 5.75c/bu to 734.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec down €2/t to €231.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December up 1c/bu to 478.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 7.5c/bu to 1412.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$9.80/t to C$723.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €1.50/t to €451.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat up A$5/t to $392/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley down A$2.50/t to $335/t;
  • AUD dollar up 131 points, about 2 percent, to US$0.6508.


Black Sea market analyst SovEcon anticipated Russian wheat prices may increase after a three-month decline amid higher demand and lower supply, noting demand for Russian wheat among exporters is increasing amid a resurgence in export sales. As of November 14, the amount of outstanding wheat sales reached 2.4Mt, up from 1.9Mt a month earlier. An expected increase in domestic prices, coupled with the strengthening of the Ruble, may negatively impact exporters’ margins and could limit Russian wheat exports in the coming months. 

Conab Brazil reported as at 11 Nov, the 2023-24 first maize crop planting was 46pc complete (54pc previous year), with fieldwork nearing completion in Paraná, where crops are reportedly in good condition. Favourable weather was noted in São Paulo and Santa Catarina, while drier conditions hampered sowings in Mato Grosso. Soybean planting was 58pc complete (66pc). Reports indicate some replanting was necessary in parts of Goiás, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso. For the latter, despite limited rainfall, fields were seen in generally good condition. Wheat harvest was 87pc complete (59pc), with beneficial weather recorded in Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná and Santa Catarina. 

USDA grain export inspections for the week ending 9 Nov put cumulative wheat at 7.4Mt (-25pc from previous year). Sorghum cumulative marketing year export was 0.6Mt (+158pc), soybeans 14.0Mt (-6pc), and maize 6.2Mt (+23pc). 

Tunisia’s state grain agency bought 50,000t durum for December shipment in yesterday’s tender at US$424.69/t C&F. Finance for the purchase is being provided by the African Development Bank (ADB) and durum can only be supplied by member countries, which include the main west European countries, the US, Canada and Argentina but not the Black Sea region. 

US private exporters reported last week’s sales of 101,745t corn to Mexico during the 2023-24 marketing year.


Canola jumped out of the blocks yesterday as local values passed on most of the offshore move. Competition to own tonnes as they come off the header is hot, with both domestic crushers and the trade all competitive. Cereals also saw some gains yesterday, reflecting also the consumer hunt for tonnes during harvest.
CBH received 2.08Mt for the week ending 12 Nov, taking total receivals to 5.39Mt. The Esperance, Geraldton, Kwinana South and Kwinana North Zones have all received more than one million tonnes in total receivals for the year, with the Albany Zone set to pass that mark this week. CBH noted that harvest pace is slowing in the Geraldton Zone, while deliveries continue to remain high in the other four zones. 

Viterra received over 1Mt last week to take total received to 2.49Mt, with wheat making up just over half of total commodities received. The update noted Viterra loaded a 66kt barley vessel to China to start the 2023-24 marketing year exports. 

The rainfall forecast for northern NSW and Qld is building, with a widespread 25-50mm expected in NSW and 25-100mm in Qld from Saturday, extending into next week.


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