Friday’s offshore markets saw small moves, mostly less than 1pc, the number of commodity settlement prices firmer and weaker approximately evenly mixed. USDA WASDE meantime had given markets little direction.
- Chicago wheat March 2023 contract up US1 cent per bushel to 743.75c/bu;
- Kansas wheat March 2023 contract up 8.75c/bu at 843.75c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat March 2023 contract unchanged at 912.25c/bu;
- MATIF wheat March 2023 contract down €2.50/t to €288.75/t;
- Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract down US$0.50/t to $307.50/t;
- Corn March 2023 contract up 4c/bu to 675c/bu;
- Soybeans March 2023 contract up 9.25c/bu to 1527.75c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract down C$2.40/t to $840/t;
- MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €2.25/t to €566.75/t;
- ASX Mar 2023 wheat contract down A$1/t to $374/t;
- ASX Mar 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$315/t;
- AUD dollar firmed to US$0.698.
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that maize planting is 83pc complete, with conditions showing a marked fall compared to a week earlier, placed at 53pc fair/excellent (68pc previous week). With some fields left unplanted, notably in Santa Fe, Córdoba, Buenos Aires and Entre Ríos due to lack of sufficient moisture, planted area seen 0.4Mha lower than before, at 7.1Mha (7.7m year ago). 2022-23 soybean planting estimated to be 89pc finished, with conditions slipping significantly from last week to 44pc fair/excellent (62pc previous week), due to hot and dry weather. Unplanted fields are mostly located in the northern region. With area planted lower than previously, at 16.2Mha (16.3Mha year ago), production is revised down to 41.0Mt (43.3Mt previous year).
According to Stratégie Grains, 2023-24 EU soft-wheat production is now seen at 129.3Mt, up from a December estimate for 128.7Mt. Winter wheat is so far in good condition and plantings were above the five-year average. Barley production was trimmed by 0.2Mt, to 52.3Mt (51.4Mt previous year).
Ukrainian farmers have harvested 23.5Mt of corn from 3.6Mha, according to government figures released on Friday.
India is set to harvest a record wheat crop (+5pc to 112Mt) this season as favourable weather and heat-resistant seeds are expected to boost yields, according to the head of the Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research.
South Korean flour millers reportedly purchased 80,000 tonnes of milling wheat from the US for Mar/Apr shipment, including SW wheat (9.5pc-11.0pc min protein) at $308-$309 fob, SW wheat (8.5pc) at $310-$312 fob, HRW (11.5pc) at $371 fob and NS/DNS (14pc) at $387-$388 fob.
Local markets held their breath for the USDA report at the end of last week which, in the end, did not provide any pivotal turning points. Shorts are still dominating the feed grain market with delivered SFW firming toward the end of the week for prompt demand. The same can be said for barley, while domestic shorts are squeezed, track values are reasonably stagnant. Milling demand is also fairly stagnant with little to no export demand presence in the east coast at the moment.
You could throw a handkerchief over wheat values as spreads from milling to feed have been crunched. We are rounding the final bend for harvest. Looming wet weather on the 10-day forecast will no doubt provide an incentive to get it done. The sorghum crop will benefit from this rain though as crops had been under moisture stress through late December early Jan.
GIWA released its January crop report on Friday with another big revision to numbers, with total production now seen at 26.14Mt, 2Mt higher than the 2021-22 WA record. Wheat production is now pegged at 13.9Mt and canola at 4.3Mt. The report noted that whilst most growers are winding up getting the grain off, there is still a long way to go to move what is on-farm into the bin, particularly in the south of the state.