The Black Sea grain deal expires today and while Turkish President Erdogan said on Friday that Russia had agreed to an extension the Kremlin has not made any statements. Erdogan told reporters that he had spoken with Putin over the phone and claimed he and Putin “are on the same page” when it comes to renewing the deal. A UN spokesperson said on Friday that Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was waiting for a response from Putin. The last ship approved under the deal left Odesa early yesterday.

There is growing concern that India is considering banning rice exports in a bid to tackle inflation, as reported by Bloomberg. India is the world’s biggest rice exporter, and any move to limit exports could set off a scramble to secure alternative supplies and drive prices up even higher.

Brazil’s Conab has revised up 2022-23 total maize production by 2.1Mt, to 127.8Mt (113.1Mt previous year), reflecting higher than previously forecast yields. 2023-24 wheat production was revised up by 0.7Mt, to 10.4Mt (10.6Mt previous year).

According to FranceAgriMer, as at 10 Jul, 2023-24 common wheat crop rated 80pc good/excellent (81pc previous week, 64pc previous year), durum at 68pc (70pc, 55pc), winter barley at 80pc (80pc, 62pc), spring barley at 73pc (76pc, 51pc), and maize at 82pc (83pc, 83pc). 2023-24 common wheat harvest at 33pc complete (10pc previous week, 45pc previous year), durum at 65pc (26pc, 78pc), winter barley at 95pc (77pc, 95pc) and spring barley at 35pc (16pc, 37pc).

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that for the week ending 12 July 2023-24 wheat planting was 86pc complete (91pc previous year, 93pc avg), with conditions rated 88pc fair/excellent (86pc previous week, 77pc previous year). Varied rainfall was noted across cropping regions, with strong rainfall across the south, in parts of Buenos Aires and Entre Ríos hampering progress. 2023-24 barley sowing was 77pc complete (86pc previous year). While recent rainfall improved overall soil moisture levels, there were some cases of flooding in the southeast of the agricultural region.

Algeria’s state grains agency has reportedly purchased milling wheat at around $269.00-$269.50 per tonne c&f for Aug/Sep shipment. 

Australia

Local markets ended the week without much fanfare with ASX Jan 24 wheat unchanged at AUD$381/t. After a relatively dry week last week we can expect more of the same this week, with the rainfall map showing less than 5mm on the forecast for most major cropping regions with the exception of eastern Vic and southern WA, where 10-15mm is expected. In eastern Australia, the northern markets continue to trade at a premium to the south reflecting the drier conditions. 
The GIWA July crop report notes that the WA grain crop could potentially reach 18Mt in 2023-24, although if the predicted dry spring eventuates, this will not be the case.