Markets

Daily Market Wire 17 November 2020

Lachstock Consulting, November 17, 2020

Chicago was slightly firmer with a brief rally later in the session  Equity markets jumped with optimism about the new vaccine – and better economic new out of China and Japan both didn’t hurt anything.  The USD index is holding in the high-92 range.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US4.5cents per bushel to 598c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 6c/bu to 558c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 0.25c/bu to 554.5c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €0.75/t to €209.25;
  • Corn December contract up 5.75c/bu to 416.25c;
  • Soybeans January contract up 5.5c/bu to 1153.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola January contract down C$1.20/t to $559.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract down €1/t to €407.75;
  • Brent crude January up US$1.04 per barrel to $43.82;
  • Dow Jones index up 313 points  to 29,950;
  • AUD firmer at $0.731;
  • CAD firmer at $1.309;
  • EUR steady at $1.184.

International

  • We’ve got a new coronavirus vaccine, again.  This time it’s Moderna’s vaccine candidate that’s reported to be nearly 95pc effective in new tests.  As with the Pfizer vaccine, approval, mass production, and distribution are still to be determined, but markets have reacted to the news with great optimism.
  • Crude oil markets are watching the OPEC committee meetings this week for indications about the potential for production cuts to come in their regular full meetings at the end of the month.
  • Saudi Arabia’s SAGO booked 14 boats of barley, as expected, it’s what they tendered for, with prices in the low to mid $230s range.  It’s optional origin barley, but at current markets it should be all Aussie, and Glencore, Graincorp, and CBH won all the slots.
  • Still no new US flash sales to be seen.
  • Regular US inspections had corn at 817,000t, beans at 2.2 million tonnes and wheat at 326,000t, mostly in line with expectations.
  • US bean crush from October was 185 million bushels (Mbu), sharply above ideas in the high 170Mbu range and up nearly 5pc from last year.
  • US hog markets have been gradually sliding from late October highs, and cash prices reported down yet again to start this week.  Many are making note of increased Chinese herd figures, which pegged their October totals up some 27pc y-o-y.
  • Brazilian soybean planting (national) was pegged at just over two thirds complete, with all eyes still watching the weather.  One analyst group there came out Monday with comments that they are already confident that there will be no bumper crop given the dry start.  That’s mostly what the markets had been thinking already, but recent moisture and forecasts, suggesting more rain coming in central areas through this week, had seen some boosting back up their estimates slightly.
  • Black Sea region weather maps also remain very dry for most of Russian and Ukrainian winter wheat areas.

Australia

  • A large part of the east coast had a good run at harvest last week. Parts of SA and WA received showers which caused further delays
  • Cash boards kicked off the week a touch softer with wheat being down $2-5/t through NSW port zones and a buck in Victoria where the wheat harvest is yet to ramp up
  • Deferred bids and trade markets were also a touch softer on wheat, while barley remained flat. We had a firmer AUD/USD over the day with the USD weakening in which helped pull harvest bids back
  • The forecast is presenting a clear 8-10-day range for ideal harvest conditions and the Oz crop continues to come off with impressive yield feedback with above avg results

 

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