Markets

Daily Market Wire 18 May 2021

Lachstock Consulting, May 18, 2021

Wheat and EU rapeseed fell about 1pc. Corn prices rose 1pc.

  • Chicago wheat July contract down US7.5c/bu to 699.75c;
  • Kansas wheat July contract down 5.5c/bu to 652.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract down 25.75c/bu to 715c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €3.50/t to €214.50/t;
  • Corn July contract up 8.75c/bu to 652.5c;
  • Soybeans July contract up 1.25c/bu to 1587.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola July contract up C$45/t to $916.80;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €6.75/t to €541/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.1 to 90.2;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.777;
  • CAD firmer at $1.207;
  • EUR firmer at $1.216;
  • ASX wheat July contract down AU$6.80/t to $308/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $1/t to $314/t.

International

Sentiment is a powerful thing in markets. It’s hard to see what structural fundamental changes we have made in the corn balance sheet over the last 2 weeks, yet the market is indicating the story is over. Yes, there is rain forecast for Brazil but, given the pollination window is largely behind us, it’s hard to see what benefit it can provide to balance sheets.

Export sales further highlighted that the demand side of the market is still powering along. There were 1.892 million tonnes (Mt) booked over the week with another 1.7Mt flashed to China. A back-of-the-envelope calculation, and including sales to unknown, pegs their new crop program at 7Mt already. Full year USDA Chinese corn imports are 26Mt.

Spring wheat led the wheat complex lower overnight with rain forecast throughout the northern US Plains and the Canadian Prairies. Deficits are meaningful and more will be needed to get this part of the global wheat belt back on track. There is a small potential for a freeze in parts of Canada towards the end of the week which would not be ideal.

Planting pace update – Corn 80pc planted vs 67pc last week and 68pc average, winter wheat crop condition was rated 48pc good-to-excellent vs 49pc last week. Spring wheat is 85pc in the ground vs 70pc last week and 71pc average

Korea was rumoured to have bought over a quarter of a million tonnes of corn last week.

Inflation talk in the US continues to grow after the surge in the April data. Core inflation, excluding energy and food cost was up 3pc, the highest since 1995.

Australia

Markets kicked off the week largely unchanged across the board and liquidity was subdued. ASX Jan 22 wheat settled a buck softer to close out at $314/t.
Rain on the way hopefully… while many of the main forecast models are showing divergence on anticipated falls, all have rain for the southern belt.
This has many growers going around the clock to get planting completed which has slowed old crop activity.
Spot loads did trade into consumptive homes in Victoria. Wheat was quoted $335-340 for small tonnage.
Old crop barley markets still seem to keep finding a bid along the east coast mainly through Victoria. Malt demand has been gaining momentum in the market with up country and delivered demand into Geelong/Melbourne.
Northern markets still are catching up post the height of the logistics squeeze with consumers indicating deliveries are still running behind.
Sorghum harvest will be a long, drawn out affair but encouraging signs of late crop quality offsetting frustrations around harvest pace.

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