Daily market wire 18 Oct 2016

Lachstock Consulting, October 18, 2016

lackstock1Small gains across the board with Kansas wheat leading the way after strengthening 4.25c. Canola made significant gains as soybeans put up another strong showing with a leg up from a supportive NOPA crush report.

CBOT wheat was up 2.75c to 423.75c, Kansas wheat up 4.25c to 422c, corn down -0.2c to 354c, soybeans up 15.75c to 986c, Winnipeg canola up $C8.6 to $C496.1, and Matif canola up €3 to €391.5. The Dow Jones down -51.98 to 18086.4 , Crude Oil down -0.28c to 50.07c, AUD up to 0.7638c, CAD down to 1.3132c, (AUDCAD 1.0029) and the was EUR up to 1.0999c (AUDEUR 0.6942).

Suggestions that the US may come to the party with a share in multiple tenders that came out last week has provided more support for both Kansas and Chicago wheat with the Black Sea values continuing to edge higher. Saudi Arabia look to have got their hands on over 600k of wheat, mostly from EU with some more from the Baltic. The likelihood of seeing more HRW business in the second half of the marketing year continues to increase with the more EU hard wheat that gets snapped up now.

Corn hovered well within a 10c range overnight with little change of note as the short covering continues to match farmer hedge pressure. Inspections fell short of expectations at 875.8k. Harvest was called at 46% vs market ideas of 49% after market close. Soybeans gained strength with assistance from palm oil overnight, along with strong inspection figures of 2.5mil and a hefty NOPA crush number of 129.4bu. Canola gains were supported by the momentum in soybeans, coupled with poor prairie weather which has the potential to result in some crop to be left in the ground for winter.

Domestically, chickpeas are in the headlines after what has been a wet and cold couple of months. Traders have been backed into a corner which has created significant spikes in cash prices as they attempt to cover their nearby delivery commitments. Offshore buyers show greatest interest for Aussie chickpeas in two specific times of the year. Straight off the header and between April and June, which is coincides with the Ramadan festival. Significant pressure can be expected through to December if shipments are going to meet sales contracts and fill export expectation into the sub-continent market.

The Darling Downs and Fitzroy in QLD can expect upwards of 25mm in the coming week, whilst no more than 25mm is forecast to fall in any regions of NSW. Some areas of Goulburn in Victoria can expect over 25mm with all other cropping areas likely to receive less than 15mm.


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