International

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon revised its Russian wheat crop back up 0.4Mt to 82.9Mt reflecting higher expected yields in Siberia which is expected to see a record 11.3mMt harvested. The Urals are also seeing increased production which has offset a decline in the Central and Volga regions due to dry weather and extreme heat. Dry weather is forecast in most regions of Russia in the coming days, which should help with harvesting. 

Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, IKAR, estimated that Russian farmers have planted 6.3 million hectares of winter crops excluding oilseeds to date, the slowest pace for this time of year in more than a decade. Ukraine’s planted area is estimated to be around half of what it was this time last year. Heat and dryness has left some fields too dry, including for other crops such as rapeseed. 

The French Ag Ministry has cut a further 0.54Mt from its soft wheat production estimate, now seen at 25.78Mt, the lowest production volume since 1986. 

The price of palm oil dropped to its lowest value in more than three weeks after India increased import duties for vegetable oils. India has changed import taxes on some crude and refined edible oils, with soybean and sunflower oil raised from 5.5pc to 27.5pc, while for refined grades the rate increased from 13.75pc to 35.75pc. 

Brazil national agricultural agency Conab expects Brazil’s soybean area to increase 3pc in 2024-25 to 47.4 million hectares and yields to increase by nearly 10pc. Exports are forecast to increase 13pc to 104.8Mt, with crush expected to be up 8pc to 56.7Mt. Corn output is forecast 4pc higher in 2024-25 at 119.8Mt and exports reduced by 6pc to 34Mt. 

Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his US soybean yield 0.5bu. to 52.5 bu. per acre, noting soil moisture has declined in nine of the past 10 weeks, which is detrimental to pod filling, with production now seen at 4.52 billion bushels. Dr Cordonnier kept his corn yield and production forecasts at 182.5 bu. per acre and 15.09 billion bu, respectively and maintained a neutral-to-lower bias toward both crops. 

Japan’s MAFF is seeking 123,012 tonnes of milling wheat from the US, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.

Australia

Canola bids recovered some of Monday’s losses yesterday. In WA canola firmed about A$5/t to $755/t FIS and cereals eased slightly. Wheat was $358/t and barley $315/t FIS. Similar moves occurred in Eastern Australian where canola was bid $2-$6/t firmer to about $700/t, wheat lost $5/t of its recent gains to be bid $348/t and barley was bid around $312/t. 

The 8-day forecast is looking more promising with 15mm to 50mm now tipped for most cropping regions in Vic and SA. This is unlikely to add yield potential for most parts but should help stop the decline for now. Frost has damaged lentils in South Australia’s Mid North and Northern regions and the extent of the damage will be known in the coming days. 

This week’s line ups data shows there is currently 1.86Mt of total grain on the stem for September, up from 1.67Mt last week. Wheat is up from 851kt to 980kt, barley is unchanged at 308kt, canola is steady at 358kt and sorghum is up from 160kt to 210kt. Port activities were mixed last week with the current maximum wait time 5 days. There are 6 vessels loading and 8 anchored at Australian grain ports.