Daily Market Wire 19 April 2023

Lachstock Consulting, April 19, 2023

Most market moves were less than one per cent. Matif canola gained another 3pc, after the previous day 4pc jump, regaining much of the fall of recent weeks.

  • Chicago wheat December 2023 contract up US1.5 cents per bushel to 734.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December 2023 contract down 8.25c/bu to 862c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December 2023 down 2.75c/bu to 884c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2023 up €2/t to €261.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December 2023 unchanged at US$292.50/t;
  • Corn July 2023 contract up 2c/bu to 644.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans July 2023 contract up 5.5c/bu to 1491c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola July 2023 contract up C$6.80/t to $753.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed August 2023 contract up €15.25/t to €476.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract up $2/t to $391/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract up A$3/t to $335.20/t;
  • AUD dollar gained 23 points to US$0.6724


Black Sea export inspections reportedly remained suspended for a second day yesterday, adding to the growing uncertainty about the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Russia’s Foreign Minister is expected to discuss the situation with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres at the UN Security Council meeting April 24-25. 

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon revised its Russian wheat crop forecast up 1.5Mt to 86.8Mt, citing favourable weather conditions in key growing regions. The update noted that weather models predict good precipitation in the next two weeks in southern Russia, the southern part of central Russia, and the Lower Volga region, further improving prospects for new crop. This projection is 17pc lower than last year’s 104.2Mt crop, but 5pc higher than the five-year average of 82.5Mt. Due to improved prospects for the new crop and record-high stocks the current season’s high supply of Russian wheat is expected to continue into the upcoming season. 

Ukraine will be able to resume transit of its grain through Polish territory from Friday. Poland will keep its ban on imports of Ukrainian grain and other food products to its domestic market. The agreement includes sealing cargoes of grain and monitoring their route across Polish territory to four ports on the Baltic Sea and other destinations in Europe. 

Effective from 19 April, Slovakia will suspend imports of grain and other agricultural products from Ukraine indefinitely, however transit of these commodities through the country will still be permitted. 

Early soybean yields in Argentina have been disappointing and highly variable, prompting crop consultant Michael Cordonnier to cut another 2Mt from his estimate which is now 24Mt. Dr Cordonnier notes corn has fared better than soybeans, but yields are still disappointing. His Argentine corn crop estimate was reduced by 1Mt to 35Mt. His crop estimates for Brazil remained at 153Mt for soybeans and 123Mt for corn but he noted the soybean crop figure could be increased unless unforeseen problems were to emerge in Rio Grande do Sul. 

StoneX pegged its Brazil 2023-24 wheat production forecast at a record 11.3Mt (11.0Mt previous year), with planted area seen at 3.5m ha (+6pc y/y). 

Chinese Customs data reveal 2023 year to date corn imports up 6pc year on year at 7.52Mt, wheat imports up 43pc at 4.35Mt, barley imports down 2pc at 1.7Mt and sorghum imports down 80pc at 510 000t. 

Japan’s MAFF is seeking 66,377t food-quality wheat from the United States and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Thursday. 


Local wheat markets were a touch firmer yesterday some further buying enquiry, late, flushed a few sellers out. Barley bids also were a few bucks stronger and canola gained $30/t across the board. Canola bids should again be firmer today with Matif values firmer overnight.

The 8-day forecast is still looking relatively dry with less than 5mm expected for Qld and NSW except for southeast NSW where 5-10mm is on the cards. For cropping regions of Vic and SA, 5-10mm is also expected with isolated falls of up to 15mm for some regions. WA is looking relatively dry. The dry week will allow planting to ramp up with the timing of the autumn break ideal for many. 


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