All markets were firmer on Friday.
- Chicago wheat December contract up 3 cents per bushel to 477.5
- Kansas wheat December contract up 5.25c to 409.5c,
- Minneapolis wheat December contract up 3.75c to 518.5c,
- MATIF wheat December contract up €0.75 per tonne to €173.5;
- Corn December contract up 9.75c to 380.75;
- Soybeans November contract up 9c to 879.75c;
- Winnipeg canola November contract up C$1.20 to C$452.40;
- MATIF rapeseed November contract up €3 at €382
- Brent crude October contract up $0.41 per barrel to $58.64
- Dow Jones up 306.62 to 25886.01;
- AUD strengthened to US$0.6781
- CAD strengthened to $1.3275
- EUR weakened to $1.1089
In the wheat pits Chicago settled up 3 usc/bu closing at 477.5usc/bu, Kansas was 5.25 usc/bu higher to settle at 409.5usc/bu, while Minni rallied 3.75 usc/bu to go out at 518.5usc/bu. Corn gained 9.75 usc/bu to go out at 380.75usc/bu while Beans were up 9 usc/bu to settle at 879.75usc/bu WCE Canola rallied 1.2 CAD/mt closing at 452.4CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing higher by 1 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones gained 306.62 points.
Offshore grain markets have something for everyone at the moment. The purest fundamental traders will be watching the ProFarmer tour with interest as many in this camp have wildly different yields and planted area to the USDA. The “tech trader” has some clear levels brought about by the extended break, particularly in corn. The “asset allocator” has some thinking to do – stay in equities or find another asset class that isn’t as scary – pre-empting a flight to safety is generally supportive for commodities in a generic sense. The “global end user” will weigh up being hand to mouth vs valuing the fact we haven’t really had a massive crop failure in recent history. And finally the “global producer” has valued the exposure on being short (or overly long) in a market that can move on a tweet.
Back in Australia, Rains continued to fall through parts of western Victoria and scattered showers in WA, SA and SNSW over the weekend. Industry body GIWA released latest crop estimate with total state crop production at 13.761 million tonnes. It noted that crop conditions are stable for now given latest rainfall event and potential is there for yield to be shaped close to average if the spring is kind and similar to last year’s. Time will tell. Markets steadied up in the back end of the week with barley relatively unchanged through WA. SA and Vic barley was a touch firmer finishing around $285/t track. Wheat delivered markets through Vic and SNSW still remain wide bid offer spreads in new crop and the old crop demand still running hand to mouth.
Source: Lachstock Consulting
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