Markets

Daily Market Wire 19 August 2022

Lachstock Consulting, August 19, 2022

Wheat traded down hard, settling around 4pc lower. Corn, soybeans lifted again.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US31.5 cents per bushel to 749c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 37.75c/bu to 815.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 29.5c/bu to 864.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €11.25/t to €306/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down $3.25/t to $334.50/t;
  • Corn December contract up 3.75c/bu to 615.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 15.25c/bu to 1405.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract was down C$0.20/t to $815.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €11/t to €604/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down A$10.50/t to $393/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at $A300/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.691.

International

Another ship carrying corn left Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port, Turkey’s defence ministry said on Thursday, bringing the total number of vessels to leave Ukraine’s Black Sea ports to 25. An additional four vessels are expected to arrive at Ukrainian ports today to be loaded with grain.

The IGC August Grain Market Report contained notable revisions: its world corn production outlook was cut to 1.179 billion tonnes, from 1.189 billion tonnes with stocks cut to 265Mt, from 271Mt. Wheat production outlook was increased to 778Mt, from 770Mt, with stocks raised to 275Mt, from 272Mt.

IGC raised Ukraine’s grain exports to 30.4Mt, up from 22.6Mt in July. Wheat exports are seen at 13Mt (up from 10Mt), Corn exports seen at 15.5Mt (12Mt). Russian grain exports now seen at 44.5Mt (45.1Mt) but wheat exports cut to 36.5Mt (from 37.5Mt) as early-season volumes have fallen short of expectations.

Russian Ag. Ministry reports that, at 15 August, 67.8Mt wheat had been harvested from 15.4m ha (equivalent to 52pc of planted area) and reported yield at 4.4t/ha (+34pc vs. same period last year). Barley harvest to date was 9.5Mt from 2.6m ha (33pc of area), with yield 3.6t/ha (+36pc y/y). Rapeseed harvest to date was 1.2Mt, from 439,800 ha (19pc of area), with yields at 2.8t/ha (+15pc y/y).

China’s General Administration of Customs data has July corn imports at 1.5Mt (-46pc y/y), taking cumulative 2022 (Jan/Dec) arrivals to 15.1m (-17pc). Wheat imports in July were 780,000t (-12pc), 2022 total at 5.7Mt (-8pc), barley July 40,000t (-95pc), cumulative at 3.8Mt (-41pc) and sorghum July 1.3Mt (+20pc), cumulative 7.3Mt (+25pc).

China’s Ministry of Water Resources reports that water levels in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River are expected to remain low well into September, and dryness in the provinces of Anhui, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi could intensify. Water levels in the main trunk of the river and the flood basin lakes of Dongting and Poyang are below normal. Damage was noted at around 820,000 ha of arable land in Anhui.

Australia

Local markets continued to bleed lower yesterday across the board. Liquidity picked up in new crop selling as a touch of panic set in. Wheat values were down $8-10/t with ASX Jan 23 trading down to $389/t, Barley has hit free fall mode with new crop bids off a further $10-15/t. Canola held some ground yesterday and was relatively unchanged on new crop bids.

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