Weather: More wind is forecast for Kansas this week, accompanied by dry conditions, which are unlikely to give the crop any reprieve for at least the next 10 days. A few models are starting to suggest some rainfall may be on the cards for parts of SA, Vic, and NSW later next week, which would be most welcome in these areas.
Markets: Wheat lost ground in the US later in the session after gaining early, with Matif shorts weighing on the market, losing € 2.25/t. Veg oil found some support, with canola markets appearing to have stabilised at these levels after the recent pullback.
Australian Day Ahead: Expect wheat bids to be largely unchanged, with global markets softer but accompanied by a weaker dollar. Canola bids should find some support, up around A$5. Barley demand remains strong, with bids expected to be unchanged to slightly higher.
French 2025 (black line) crop conditions for soft wheat and winter barley improved recently. Source: AgriMer via Lachstock. Click expand.
Offshore
In a statement on Tuesday, the Iraqi cabinet announced its approval to export 2 million tons of domestically grown wheat, marking for Iraq the first wheat export in decades. This initiative aligns with the government’s strategy to boost non-oil revenue. Whether the infrastructure and logistics are in place to allow this remains to be seen.
Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) plans to procure 122,456t food-grade wheat from the United States, Canada, and Australia through a routine tender closing on Wednesday.
Monday’s individual state Crop Progress reports indicated that Kansas winter wheat was rated 48 percent good to excellent, a 2pc decline from the previous week. Texas ratings remained unchanged at 28pc good to excellent. Forecasts suggest drier conditions across much of the Southern Plains next week as the crop starts emerging from dormancy.
As of March 16, EU soft wheat exports had reached 14.92 million tonnes (Mt) since July 1, significantly trailing the 22.92Mt recorded during the same period last year.
The new crop soy/corn ratio is 2.24, still favouring corn. S&P Global now estimates 94.3 million corn acres this spring, up 800,000 from prior projections. The March Planting Intentions report is due at month’s end.
ANEC estimates Brazil’s March soybean exports at 15.56Mt, up 0.11Mt from prior projections. Meal sales are expected at 2.6Mt, an increase of 0.22Mt.
Australia
WA bids were mixed with canola bid around $784 for current crop and $775 for new crop. Wheat was bid $375 up on Monday’s number, barley a little softer $355.
Through the east canola was bid $734, wheat $345 and barley around $317.
Sorghum markets have remained strong with solid demand from China through both containers and bulk freight. With delivered Brisbane/Newcastle markets bid around $375 with Darling Downs $340.
The barley spread between FIS markets in the west and track markets in the east, at around $40 higher in Western Australia than in the east, is wider than normal. Historically the spread would be about $25-30.
Western Australian port barley price, compared with eastern Australian, presently is a premium of around $40/t; FIS Kwinana versus track Melbourne. Season 2024-25 dark blue line. New crop light blue line. $A per tonne. Source: Lachstock
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