Daily Market Wire 19 September 2018

Lachstock Consulting September 19, 2018

Mixed for grains, lower for oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat was up 4.25c to 510.5c,
  • Kansas wheat up 3.25c to 516c,
  • corn down -4.75c to 343.25c,
  • soybeans down -9.5c to 814c,
  • Winnipeg canola down -2.40C to 486.4$C, and
  • Matif canola down -2.25€ to 365.75€.
  • The Dow Jones up 184.84 to 26246.96,
  • Crude Oil down -0.049c to $US69.8 per barrel,
  • AUD up to 0.722c,
  • CAD down to 1.297c, (AUDCAD 0.937) and the
  • EUR up to 1.167c (AUDEUR 0.618).


Wheat finished with slight gains as sellers became reluctant after rechecking their global balance sheets. Implied volatility in Dec Soft Red Winter finished at 23.5pc. Matif futures were up €1.25/t to €199.25/t. After seeming to ignore Aussie production issues yesterday the market paid attention today, peeling back export ideas and encouraging bullish sympathy. Australia is not the only area where the USDA has gaps to fill, Russian exports will be a challenge if pace continues on current trajectory. Egypt purchased 475,000t of wheat for Nov shipment at values based on Black Sea replacement. Ethiopia and Turkey are also both tendering over the next week. Heavy snowfall in Canada is threatening spring wheat production there which is the last thing the global protein balance sheet needs. Wheat on its own is constructive, but it risks getting caught up in corn/bean order flow.


Corn suffered further selling, forging new lows in at technically weak session that could encourage further fund selling ahead of the record harvest that is just getting started. The global balance sheet can use US stocks, which makes for a slightly constructive global balance sheet, but buying ahead of US farmer order flow is discouraging potential bulls and letting short players get ahead of things.


Ongoing trade tensions and increasing US yield potential in the US led beans lower. Trump introduced a new US$200 billion tariff on China and threatened to introduce further tariffs on $267 billion of additional goods if China retaliates. This basket case is getting tiresome. US demand could see an improvement if we have any disruption of Argentina’s crop production, but that will not come from China. Even though US beans are now cheaper despite the tariff, importers there still favour Brazilian purchases to avoid being potentially caught with a stranded cargo if trade tensions escalate further. Soymeal was down $2.40/t and soy oil was 33 points lower.


Canola finished lower in both contracts with no willing buyers given the political uncertainty and weakness in vegoils.


Aussie markets remained strong yesterday as doom and gloom increases from a production point of view. Frosts in WA, SNSW and parts of SA over the weekend have prompted decent production cuts, as well as a nervous grower group who are washing out contracts and assessing the merits of abandoning grain and harvesting hay. WA’s importance to the east coast market is growing daily, with next to no moisture to relieve crops or even provide some pasture to feed.


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