International

Chinese Customs data shows August corn imports at 430kt, down 64pc year on year, with cumulative imports down 16pc at 12.56Mt.

The French Ag Ministry cut its 2024-25 forecast of soft wheat export forecast to non-EU countries by 3.5Mt to 4Mt, which would be 61pc below last year. France has produced the smallest wheat crop since 1986. 

Brazil national agricultural agency Conab in its Perspectives for Agriculture report noted  2024-25 total maize production would increase to 119.8Mt (115.6m previous year) reflecting a recovery in yields. Exports are forecast to be down 2Mt to 34Mt reflecting strong competition from the US and increased domestic demand, with use for ethanol seen 17pc higher year on year. Despite lower prices, soybeans remain a profitable option for many farmers. Area planted is forecast 47.4Mha (46Mha previous year), with most of the additional area coming from degraded pasture areas or fallow areas. With an increase in yields, soybean production is forecast to increase to 166.3Mt (147.4Mt). Increased demand for biodiesel and from the feed sector will result in domestic consumption increasing to 60.3Mt (56Mt) and exports increasing to 104.8Mt (92.4Mt). 

UK-based price reporting agency Fastmarkets said that as at 16 Sept, Russia’s 2025-26 winter crop sowing has been completed on 7Mha (equivalent to 36pc of intended area, 7.9Mha previous year) including wheat on 6.2Mha (7.1Mha same period of previous year). Winter rapeseed plantings are at 546,700 ha (392,300 ha previous year). According to official data, 2024-25 wheat harvest is 78pc complete yielding 75Mt, with average yields at 3.2t/ha (-11pc on previous year). Barley harvest is 81pc complete, at 15.5Mt, with average yields at 2.6t/ha (-10pc), maize 15pc complete, yielding 1.4Mt, average yields at 3.4t/ha (-43pc). Rapeseed 49pc complete, yielding 3Mt, with average yields at 2.2t/ha (-9pc). 

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon forecast Russia’s 2024-25 wheat exports at 48.1Mt, down from 52.4Mt last year. It expects Moscow to impose wheat export quotas for the second half of the year, although at this stage is unsure how restrictive they will be. 

Ukraine-based agribusiness consultancy APK-Inform forecast Ukraine’s 2024-25 soybean production to reach a record 6Mt, up 9pc year on year reflecting a significant increase in the area planted. 

This week’s Manitoba Crop Report noted that 2024-25 winter wheat harvest is now complete, spring wheat harvest 87pc complete (93pc previous year), barley 88pc (95pc) and canola 49pc (55pc). 

The US Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 0.5 percent on Wednesday. The larger than expected cut had an immediate impact on global currency markets with the US dollar losing value against most major currencies. The Australian dollar firmed above 68 cents, but within hours it retraced.

Australia

New crop canola bids in WA lifted $5/t yesterday to $760/t, while cereal bids lifted a couple of bucks. Wheat was bid $364/t and barley $315/t. 

In the eastern markets values have firmed as growers impacted by frost step back, not willing to sell until a better picture of the damage emerges. The ASX March 25 Eastern Australia Wheat contract closed $2/t higher yesterday at $330/t.

The start to spring couldn’t have been worse for most of SA, Vic and parts of southern NSW. There has been very little rain, high temperatures and strong winds have recently prevailed and now the regions have been subjected to a series of frosts. Growers are now making the call to cut crops for hay rather than risk waiting for rain that never seems to arrive, and with low grain prices and poor yields the numbers are starting to stack up.