Markets retraced some of the previous day gains. US dollar settled lower.
- Chicago wheat May contract down US7c/bu to 611c;
- Kansas wheat May contract down 10.75c/bu to 565c;
- Minneapolis wheat May contract down 11.25c/bu to 599.5c;
- MATIF wheat May contract down €6.25/t to €209.25;
- Corn May contract down 4.5c/bu to 559.75c;
- Soybeans May contract down 34.75c/bu to 1402c;
- Winnipeg canola May contract down C$16.30/t to $740.80;
- MATIF rapeseed May contract down €20/t to €494;
- US dollar index down 0.3 to 92.9;
- AUD unchanged at US$0.762;
- CAD firmer at $1.254;
- EUR firmer at $1.178;
- ASX wheat May contract up A$6/t to $286;
- ASX wheat January 2022 up $3/t to $290.
After the limit moves post report the other day, row crop markets traded back off Thursday night with pressure from soybeans throughout the session – beans closed down 34 3/4¢ and corn -4.5¢ (with Matif -20€, Winnipeg -$16.3). Wheat was down 7¢, KC -10 3/4¢, Minny -11 1/4¢, and Matif -6.25€ on the earlier close. Crude was up two bucks to $61.5 WTI / $64.9 Brent despite OPEC announcing that they would gradually increase production into the middle of this year (betting on improved demand globally with the post corona recovery) and the DOW was up 172 points. The USD has come off a quarter on the index to 92.9, with the AUD up to 76.2¢, the CAD $1.254, and the EUR $1.178.
CBOT markets were closed on Good Friday.
Plenty of ongoing debate in the markets about acreage/planting intentions – as always markets are keen to question the accuracy of the USDA data after the fact. The last several years the March intentions report, if you account for the PP stories, largely has proved an accurate indicator for later acreage figures, but it is by no means guaranteed to happen that way and moving markets do shift marginal acres.
Russia export tax implementation continues to move forward, with the Moscow Exchange publishing their new price indices for wheat, barley, and corn. Taxes starting 1 June 2021 are based on a weekly average, but based on their latest US$282/t value wheat the tax works to the equivalent of $57/t. Worth noting that the exchange claims it will be a two-month rolling average for the prices so there will be a substantial lag impact to the tax values.
Regular US export sales had wheat at 0.25Mt, corn 0.8Mt, and beans 0.1Mt including 124,000t to China, but one panamax of that switched from unknown. Sorghum/milo at 121,000t was also all China with three new boats, but one switched from unknown.
Saudi Arabia’s SAGO is back tendering again, this time for wheat, five boats of old crop May/June. They’re also reportedly still in the process of selling off their remaining two flourmills to the private sector, but at current it appears that SAGO will continue to provide subsidized wheat to private mills, for distribution domestically at subsidized values.
Egypt’s GASC is also back in the market again for wheat, the tender being held next week after Easter, for delivery FH April.
Weather maps for south/central Brazilian safrinha corn areas remain dry into the extended run forecasts.
BOM forecasts are still dry for most of the wheat belt into next week as we start moving into planting.
Happy Easter all.
Source: Lachstock Consulting