Daily Market Wire 2 December 2022

Lachstock Consulting, December 2, 2022

Commodity markets eased overnight. The US dollar index and the Dow also eased.

  • Chicago wheat March 2023 contract down US12.5 cents per bushel to 783/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March 2023 contract down 9.5c/bu at 890.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March 2023 contract down 5c/bu to 938c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2023 contract down €3.50/t to  €312.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract down US$1.25/t to $319.50/t;
  • Corn March 2023 contract down 6.5c/bu to 660.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract down 39.75c/bu to 1429.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was down C$31/t to $812.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €14.25/t to €585.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract settlement unchanged at  A$402/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$318/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.681.


US government’s proposed increase in biofuel mandates for the next three years has fallen short of market expectations resulting in the significant fall in soy oil prices. The market was expecting significantly bigger increases in the mandates, particularly for bio-mass based diesel.

Residents returned to work yesterday in China’s Guangzhou for the first time in weeks after Covid-19 lock downs were lifted. In Chongqing, some residents were no longer required to take regular Covid tests and in Beijing, a senior health official played down the severity of Omicron variants, which is a rare move and shows that there may finally be a shift in the approach being taken.

Brazil’s corn exports hit 6 million tonnes in November, significantly higher than the 2.4 million tonnes exported in November last year. Soybean exports in November were 2.6 million tonnes, up slightly compared to the 2.5 million tonnes shipped in November last year .

StoneX Brazil pegs the current soybean crop at 155.09 million tonnes, up from 154.35 Mt last month and up from 127.23 Mt last year. Weather over the next four to six weeks will be critical.
Refinitiv Commodities Research reports that due to persistent drought and planting delays in Argentina 2022-23 maize production forecast has been cut by 1.2Mt, to 48.0Mt. Long-awaited rains during second the half of November were insufficient to recharge soil moisture reserves, which are at a five-year low in most major producing provinces. The latest ENSO outlook indicates that the current La Niña event is expected to last until end 2022, and may not completely dissipate by early 2023 

European Commission, data shows 2022-23 (Jul/Jun) shipments for week ending 27 Nov for all-wheat exports was 151,953 tonnes, cumulative at 14.5Mt (+3pc on previous year), imports at 223,253 t, cumulative at 3.7m (+95pc). Maize exports at 26,190 t, cumulative at 0.5m (-79pc), imports at 559,795 t, cumulative at 12.1m (+130pc). Barley exports at 33,091 t, cumulative at 3.9m (-33pc) .

Turkeys state grain board tender for 495,000 t feed barley – the lowest offer received was quoted at $312.90 c&f, Jan/Feb shipment, with around 100,000 t bought so far.

Algeria purchased 450-500k tonnes of milling wheat in their international tender, at $354-356/tonne C&F for Jan shipment. 


Local markets found some ground yesterday holding on the boards for the day on wheat, while ASX Jan East Coast contract traded at $402/mt and on the roll to march traded at $405/mt. Barley values continued to pull back in SA as yields are coming in over expectation and growers continue to let it go. Canola values were relatively unchanged for the day.

Harvest pace has ramped up from northern NSW down into Victoria across to SA and well and truly into WA with relatively clear skies forecast for the next 8 days. The whole country is going at once this year putting further pressure on trucks and harvest contract teams. 

The excitement over vessels on the stem heading to China has turned out to be a fizzer – the canola is off to the EU and barley off to the UAE.
Its official – it was the wettest spring on record for NSW, Victoria and the Murray-Darling Basin. It was also an abnormally cool spring for large areas of Australia, due to increased cloud cover from La Nina, the negative IOD and positive SAM, combined with the passage of several unseasonably strong cold fronts. Based on daytime maximum temperatures, it was the coldest spring since 1976 in NSW. 

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