Markets were mixed overnight, wheat mostly weaker and canola firmer.
- Chicago wheat March contract down US12 cents per bushel to 651c;
- Kansas wheat March contract down 12.75c/bu to 625.25c;
- Minneapolis wheat March contract down 10.5c/bu to 623c;
- MATIF wheat March contract down €3.50/t to €223.50/t;
- Corn March contract up 2.25c/bu to 549.25c;
- Soybeans March contract down 4.75c/bu to 1365.25c;
- Winnipeg canola March contract up C$23.90/t to $715.50;
- MATIF rapeseed May contract up €0.75/t to €440.50;
- Brent crude April up US$1.31 per barrel to $56.35;
- Dow Jones index up 230 to 30,212;
- US dollar index up 47 points to 91.00;
- AUD weaker at $0.762;
- CAD weaker at $1.286;
- EUR weaker at $1.206
The USDA brought new corn flash sale reports of 235,000t old crop corn to Japan and Mexico, and 133,000t of soybean meal to The Philippines. But there was no new China business reported despite expectations. Still some speculation about more to come this week, but nothing concrete yet.
USDA’s Feb WASDE report will be released next Tuesday.
Regular export inspections were also out, with 1.1 million tonnes (Mt) of corn, 1.8Mt of beans, and 0.4Mt of wheat. All were about as expected, and we also note the 191,000t of milo to China.
Egypt’s GASC finally came back to the market, looking for LH March wheat. Given the recent weakness in Matif, combined with the tax for Russian wheat, there are a range of estimates about what origin will be most competitive and how much tonnage GASC will end up buying. They’re always reluctant to buy at “high” prices even if there are some discounted EU boats on offer. Prices at this tender are almost guaranteed to push well above their last purchases.
Speaking of Russia, debates about the tax impacts continue. The new season formula clearly cuts into farmer revenue there, but the question is whether that is significant enough to drive larger changes in cropping rotations in future years. So far it appears that is not likely to be the case.
Brazilian soybean harvest continues gradually to move along, but more and more reports of quality problems after the heavy rains are being reported. It’s still a very slow pace compared with normal, and farmers chomping at the bit to get moving. They are keeping a cautious eye on weather maps which have turned heavily wet again into next week for many central bean areas.
December ethanol crush figures in the US were released last night. At 430 million bushels of corn it’s almost unchanged from November, but still down ~10pc from a year prior.
There’s some more moisture on the maps for central Russian wheat areas, but fairly dry into the Volga and south. Still, ground reports remain mostly positive after the mild weather and improved soil moisture conditions.
Local markets remained firm yesterday on wheat, with more buying interest across the east coast after the board rally.
Barley has been holding flat and was canola mostly unchanged to off a dollar or two in spots after short covering activity slowed.
Pulses markets have been catching a bid across the SE with lentils pushing $680/t port in SA, faba beans in Victoria up to delivered values around $375/t.
There’s been plenty of spraying ongoing to keep the weeds down, and more attention being paid to new season intentions as we start approaching planting.
Source: Lachstock Consulting