Markets

Daily Market Wire 20 April 2022

Lachstock Consulting, April 20, 2022

Oil prices were down hard. Grains eased. The Dow Jones Industrials Average strengthened.

  • Chicago wheat May contract down US21.5cents per bushel to 1099c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 13.5c/bu to 1171.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May down 5.75c/bu to 1169.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €1.50/t to €399.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract down $1.25/t to $358.75/t;
  • Corn May contract down 9.25c/bu to 804c/bu;
  • Soybeans May contract up 1.75c/bu to 1716.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$4.20/t to $1045.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €1.50/t to €828.75/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract unchanged at A$411/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $5/t to $427/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.737.

International

The markets remain baffling.

Crude oil was dealt with. It dropped 6pc (USD$5.60/bbl) in the front end. The Federal Reserve of St Louis President, James Bullard announced on Monday that the US Central Bank should not rule out rate hikes of 75 basis points. … but the Dow finished 500 points (about 1 ½ pc) higher….

Despite the terrible winter wheat crop conditions futures markets couldn’t shake the bearish commodity tone – in part driven by the US dollar hitting its highest level since March 2020. The weather in the US is a major focus with large deficits throughout the major HRW states. The snow continues to fall across the northern US belt and throughout the Canadian Prairies. It is worth keeping an eye on Brazil second corn crop with some dryness concerns sneaking in.

Just like Anzac Day is historically a key planting date in Australia, the old timers would suggest 50pc of the US corn crop needs to be in the ground by 10 May to achieve trend yields, something the global corn balance sheets desperately needs.

Russian forces have started the battle for Donbas in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday as he underscored that the country will continue to fight against a Russian incursion..

Australia

Local markets yesterday again were firmer across the board. Current crop wheat bids were up another $5/t and Kwinana zone ASW1 was bids up $10/t by COB, finishing at $390 FIS.

New crop wheat bids were also firmer by $5-10/t. South Australian bid was $430/t, reflecting a basis around minus A$126/t.

Sorghum harvest is nearing the halfway mark. Wet conditions have caused some discolouration and sprouting issues, but the crop is certainly delivering in terms of yield. Growers are now turning their focus to the winter plant with good moisture.

Rainfall totals for Tuesday across southern NSW and Vic ranged from 10 to 50mm with lighter showers across southern SA and WA. Sowing is now well and truly underway and for most into a great moisture profile.

The latest BOM outlook indicates that May to July rainfall is likely to be above median for most of Qld, SA (excluding the south), NSW and northern Victoria. The possibility of a third bumper crop is starting to look more realistic.

 

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