Markets gained ground on Friday night.
- Chicago wheat March contract up US4.5 cents per bushel to 775c/bu;
- Kansas wheat March contract up 6.25c/bu to 810c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat March down 4.25c/bu to 1022.5c/bu;
- MATIF wheat March contract up €2.50/t to €278.50;
- Corn March contract up 2c/bu to 593.25c/bu;
- Soybeans January contract up 8c/bu to 1285.25c/bu
- Winnipeg canola January 2022 contract up C$13.30/t to $1014.30/t;
- MATIF rapeseed February 2022 contract up €6.50/t to €729/t;
- ASX wheat January 2022 up A$2.50/t to $359.50/t;
- ASX wheat January 2023 up $6/t to $367.50/t.
Friday’s markets were a mixed bag, though most gained less than 1pc. In other markets the Black Sea wheat contract increased US$1.50/t, soybean meal gained almost 2pc and soybean oil lost an equivalent amount.
It’s the silly season – predicting markets on fundamentals has historically been a futile exercise through the year end/ Christmas period. Wheat balance sheets are largely known – yes there are some twists and turns with Russian exports but we are now in merchandising mode globally. The reality is US wheat is too expensive and that sucks the wind out of the spec’s sails.
Weather has a few foot notes – Argy/Brazil beans need a drink and it has been windy enough through the Plains of the US to get twitter excited.
Corn is still a true believer in the “Build it and China will come” story. Australian wheat has been the prettiest girl at the ball but there are different ideas around what that means for corn.
Russian tax is ticking away at US$94/t and now they are considering a multi-tiered structure that would add to this.
It’s rare that I will make a price prediction in this wire, however, there is zero chance we end up going into Christmas at today value.
Markets rounded out Friday relatively unchanged on the grower cashboards, while trade markets were a fraction stronger by $2-5/t for Jan plus delivered for domestic wheat markets along the east coast
Barley has struck an early cash bid this morning with the boards in Victoria up $4-5/t
The canola market in Western Victoria has pulled back on the bid again signalling that it needs a breather.
With markets throwing up a mixed bag last week, east coast grower activity slowed as the week came to an end. Activity in WA continued to flow over the week with both wheat and barley being traded.
Weather continued to cause more issues over the weekend with reports of 10mm through the Western Districts region slowing canola and bean harvest up. Reports of 40mm at Yarrawonga over the weekend will now put a further question mark on quality for the balance of standing crops in that area.
Source: Lachstock Consulting