Daily market wire 20 Sep 2016

Lachstock Consulting, September 20, 2016

lackstock1The market is somewhat mixed with wheat losing ground, as corn, soybeans and canola all find strength.

CBOT Wheat was down -0.25c to 424.75c, Kansas wheat down -0.5c to 433c, corn up 0.25c to 347.5c, soybeans up 6.5c to 977.75c, Winnipeg canola up $C2.2 to $C457.2, and Matif canola up €2.25 to €374.75. The Dow Jones down -3.63 to 18120.17 , Crude Oil down -0.049c to 43.25c, AUD up to 0.7538c, CAD up to 1.3201c, (AUDCAD 0.9949) and the was EUR up to 1.1177c (AUDEUR 0.6742).

Reports show that potential Chinese canola buying interest from Canada on improved imported canola crush margins, there still remains the issues of Admix levels on imported seed from Canada, which is creating uncertainty for exporters.

After no offers were put on the table to the GASC, once again, the time has come for a new game plan to be developed. As we edge closer to them lifting the ergot ban, Egypt have put together a trade committee to send over to Russia at the end of the month to break bread and attempt to get the ball rolling once again. As a result of Egypt refusing to accept Russian wheat plagued by ergot, Russia hit back by placing a ban on Egyptian fruit and vegetable imports. Egypt are the biggest importers of Russian wheat and Russia are one of the largest importers of Egyptian fruit and veg, so it’s safe to say it’s a friendship worth repairing.

It has been predicted that Chinese soybean import demands are going to be lower in 2016/17 as there is talk of an increase in domestic production figures. On average, Chinese soybean imports have been increasing by about 5mmt year in year, yet the USDA have lowered their 16/17 import prediction by 1mmt, to 86mmt in their most recent supply and demand report.

Domestically, Australian wheat basis has increased to $39.22 as grower selling and buyer interest remains low, coupled with the current weather concerns on the east coast.

The Central West in NSW is anticipating over 25mm in the next week, as is South Western Qld.

All of Victoria is forecast to receive similar figures, but the crop damage down south isn’t a primary concern at the moment.


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