Wheat mostly settled lower. The nearby MATIF rapeseed/Winnipeg canola spread diverged 3pc. Australian wheat and barley futures got a reset, converged.
- Chicago wheat December down US7.25c/bu to 584c/bu;
- Kansas wheat December down 4c/bu to 731c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat December up 2.25c/bu to 779.75c/bu;
- MATIF wheat December down €1.25/t to €237.25/t;
- Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
- Corn December up 4.75c/bu to 476.25c/bu;
- Soybeans May 2024 down 1.25c/bu to 1349c/bu;
- Winnipeg November canola down C$7.70/t to $734.30/t;
- Winnipeg May 2024 canola down C$5.80/t to $757.30/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2023 up €7/t to €440.25/t;
- MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €5.75 to €467.25/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat down A$6.50/t to $427.50/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley up A$10/t to $370/t;
- AUD dollar gained 17 points to US$0.6454.
Ukraine filed complaints with the WTO against Poland, Slovakia and Hungary over their restrictions on food imports from Ukraine.
Chinese customs data show that August corn imports were 1.2Mt, down 33pc from August 2022, bringing cumulative Jan-Aug to 14.9Mt, 12pc lower than over the same period last year. China imported 840kt of wheat in August, 58pc more than August 2022, with cumulative at 9.6Mt, up 53pc. Barley imports were at 380kt, up 54pc from August 2022 with cumulative at 6.2Mt, up 53pc.
According to traders, China has purchased up to 600kt tonnes of wheat from France in the past week.
Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his US corn and soybean yield estimates at 173 bu. and 49.5 bu. respectively and adopted USDA’s harvested acreage figures. Dr Cordonnier now estimates production at 15.06 bil bu. for corn and 4.09 bil bu. for beans and has a neutral/lower bias toward both crops.
The Brazilian national agricultural agency, Conab, reported as at 17 September the 2022-23 safrinha maize harvest was 96pc complete, with late-season progress delayed by rain. Wheat harvest was 23pc complete (14pc previous year). Due to intense rains and difficulties applying pesticides, disease pressure continued to mount in Rio Grande do Sul. 2023-24 first (full-season) maize plantings were 15pc complete compared to 13pc last year. Due to heavy rains, a challenging situation was noted in Rio Grande do Sul, but with comparatively better conditions in Paraná and Santa Catarina. It forecast a 5pc drop in area due to lower prices.
Brazil’s Ministry of Industry, Trade and Services estimates cumulative marketing year (Mar-Feb) maize exports at 21.1Mt, up 15pc from last year and soybean exports at 84.3Mt, up 25pc.
Unfortunately as predicted, heat and wind swept through the eastern states yesterday which did not help any positive yield sentiment. Markets were slightly softer yesterday albeit on very poor liquidity which is making it hard to define any genuine direction. That situation is likely to continue without rainfall which, at the moment, does not seem likely.
The Bureau of Meteorology has finally declared that an El Niño and a positive IOD are underway. The Climate Driver Update released yesterday noted that the declaration reinforces its long-range rainfall and temperature forecasts, which continue to predict warmer and drier conditions for much of Australia over the next three months. The confirmation of an established El Niño increases the likelihood that the event will be sustained through the summer period.