Markets

Daily Market Wire 21 January 2025

Lachstock Consulting January 21, 2025

We will resume publication of the commodities prices chart tomorrow. US markets were shut. In Europe the March MATIF wheat contract eased one tenth percent, May rapeseed gained half percent, Winnipeg canola May contract gained 2 percent, the ASX Eastern Australian May wheat contract gained half percent and the Australian dollar gained 1 percent.

The day ahead

Weather – Argy weather is still the main focus, some showers (less than inch) on the forecast for the next 7 days and temps remain normal to slightly above. The 7-to-14-day outlook has turned more positive for rainfall so we will watch this closely.

Markets – With the US markets closed for MLK public holiday, it was Winnipeg canola that led the way up around C$15  which should provide some support to GM bids domestically, Matif canola enjoyed modest gains of around 2.5/t supportive of conventional.

Australian day ahead – with positive global sentiment for commodities, ag included, on the back of easing tariff talk expect to this to offset the rise in the AUD to result in largely unchanged bids today.

Offshore

Reports suggest tariffs might not feature prominently among the Day 1 executive orders of the newly inaugurated US President. Instead, he is expected to direct agencies to conduct a comprehensive review of trade policies, the factors driving persistent trade deficits, and unfair practices in trade and currency. 

Easing trade tensions have pushed commodity markets slightly higher, aided by a falling USD which supported investor buying. With Trump refraining from implementing aggressive tariffs immediately, and improved economic data from China on the back on stimulus measures, the Aussie dollar reached a high of 0.628 overnight.  

Chinese imports of iron ore, coal and soybeans reached new highs in 2024. Chinese customs data showed staggering combined growth in 2024 imports of iron ore, coal & soybeans, up by 132Mt. Chinese imports of soybeans for 2024 were 105Mt (up 3Mt), coal 543Mt (up 68Mt) and iron ore, at 1.24 billion tonnes, was up 58Mt. 

Australia

WA canola bids started the week making back around $5 of Friday’s losses. It was bid $845 FIS. WA wheat was largely unchanged bid around $370; barley was well supported with $340 trading in the Kwi PZ on Clear Grain Exchange around $7 higher than Friday’s bid.

In the east of the country canola bids were up around $5 with bids $796. Wheat was unchanged $344 and barley around $305.

Delivered Darling Downs markets have been largely unchanged to begin the year.

Canola monthly export shipments from Australia had a blistering start to the season (dotted red/blue line) compared with the previous season (solid blue line) which peaked in February and May. Thousand tonnes. Click expand.

Wheat was bid around $334 and barley $314. Sorghum was bid around $5 higher over the last week, to $323. 

Pulses continue to be well supported with faba bids $645 delivered Geelong for Mar-May delivery and chickpeas continuing to hold around $910 delivered Brisbane.  

Australian canola exports have made a solid start. Bear in mind we are ahead of last year’s pace and have ~1.5Mt less in our export grid for this year.

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