Weather: Argentina is expected to see wetter conditions by early next week, but rainfall opportunities will be limited thereafter. In Brazil, some precipitation is expected this week, followed by drier conditions the next week, raising concerns for the Safrina corn crop.
Markets: Wheat futures down in the US with a miss on weekly export sales, corn was well supported with strong export sales. Matif canola was stronger with local crushers chasing seed, Winnipeg gave back some of this week’s gains with pressure from China’s 100% meal and oil tariffs.
Australian Day Ahead: Wheat bids likely to be back A$1-2 today on the back of global values same can be said for GM canola with conventional likely to be a little higher. Barley to continue to be well supported. Some welcome rain through parts of Vic and SA yesterday, might be enough to keep the dust down for a few days, with models showing no more significant rain likely for the next 2 weeks.
Hard Red Winter wheat export sales cancellations
Offshore
US wheat futures suffered under the weight of export sales cancellations. Around 250kt of 24/25 marketing year sales were cancelled which was clearly bearish, however, all of this tonnage plus additional sales were rolled into 25/26 year. Countries such as Panama, “unknown” (assumed to be China) and the Philippines actively pushed sales out the curve.
Corn had another solid round of sales with South Korea, Japan and Mexico all in the market.
Kazakhstan’s national railway company reported that 7.7 million tonnes (Mt) of grain were transported between September and March, with 6.1Mt allocated for export—marking a 52.8 percent increase in export volumes.
Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv Oblast reports that 90pc of winter crops successfully survived the winter, while 10pc are in poor condition—an outcome in line with expectations.
Trump plans to boost U.S. shipbuilding by fining China-linked vessels up to $1.5 million, potentially straining agricultural exports already hit by high tariffs.
Australia
WA canola bids were well supported yesterday with new crop $820 FIS and GM $750 up around $25. New crop wheat was bid $382 with current crop $377 barley was $358.
Through the east of the country canola was stronger up $15-$30 with current crop bids $765 and new crop $758. Wheat was bid $345 and barley $323.
Delivered Geelong/Melbourne barley markets are bid around $352 for April/May delivery with ASW wheat $373 for current crop and $380 for new crop.
The SA market zone seemingly has found enough grain for now with bids remaining steady over the last 2-3 weeks with ASW delivered Murray Bridge bid $375 and Wasleys $390.
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