Wheat and corn futures weakened around 2pc. Canola firmed.
- Chicago wheat July contract down US21 cents per bushel to 1076.5c/bu;
- Kansas wheat July contract down 26c/bu to 1143.5c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat July contract down 17.75c/bu to 1154.5c/bu;
- MATIF wheat September contract down €4.50/t to €356.5/t;
- Black Sea wheat July contract down $1.25/t to $356.50/t;
- Corn July contract down 14.75c/bu to 795.25c/bu;
- Soybeans July contract up 2.5c/bu to 1719.5c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$15.90/t to $1064.60/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €1.75/t to €829.25/t;
- ASX July 2022 wheat contract down A$1 to $415.50/t;
- ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $2/t to $427/t;
- AUD dollar weaker at US$0.734.
The US weekly wheat export sales for old crop came in at a woeful 26,300t versus the required run rate of 313,000t to hit the USDA estimate. It would seem high prices are biting. Some rain is building in the back end of the US forecast with reports that, so far, the crop doesn’t look as bad as the USDA numbers suggest. The ability for the moisture to move into the front of the forecast is the fundamental input at the moment. Spring wheat areas on the other hand are getting too much moisture and there will be planting delays people will try and buy.
SoveCon has pegged the Russian crop at a massive 87.4 million tonnes, which gives a 41Mt export number. Conditions look amazing and I don’t think anyone doubts there is huge production potential. The conjecture remains focused on the export program, and the ability to find vessels to service that kind of program.
The Ukraine Ag minister reported that 20pc of the spring crop is in the ground. With some dryness in the safrinha corn areas, and all the growing season in front of the US crop, corn is a hard one to fade, even with some weakness and somewhat disappointing export sales.
Local wheat bids have softened a touch in the last trading day, with the exception of H2, which was up $5/t. Offers remain sticky in the market.
Barley markets remain quiet, although we did see a small volume of malt trade yesterday through Victoria. New-crop canola was down $5-10/t.
With good early opening rains through the country, feedback on the ground is we are seeing a good strong early canola plant. Seed sales are tight through southern regions ahead of the traditional Anzac Day opening of the sowing window.
The sentiment is positive for a strong start to the winter cropping season. The 8-day forecast is pretty wet for Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, which may slow sowing activity.