Turkey’s President Erdogan said his country seeks a positive stance from Russia regarding the revival of the grain deal. He hopes to speak to President Putin face to face, despite the busy schedule, at the G-20 meeting in India and/or the United Nations General Assembly in the US. Turkey’s Foreign Minister will travel to Russia soon.
The EU Commission is reportedly considering subsidising transport of Ukrainian grain through its member states after several countries blocked imports. The issue of supporting the cost of transiting Ukrainian grain is being discussed at meetings of representatives of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria, together with the EU’s executive arm and Ukraine. 

Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reported that, as at 18 August, its 2023-24 wheat harvest has yielded 20.8Mt from 94pc of planned area, with average productivity at 4.8t/ha, barley at 5.6Mt from 94pc of area, with average productivity at 4.0t/ha. Rapeseed harvest yielded 3.9Mt, with average yields at 2.9t/ha. 

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), released its updated production outlook on Friday, noting severe drought continues across Western Canada. AAFC said the most impact was felt in Southern Alberta and Western Saskatchewan and that significant uncertainty remained regarding estimates of crop yield and production. AAFC cut its 2023-24 all-wheat production forecast by 2.1Mt, to 33.2Mt (33.8Mt previous year), cut exports by 0.8Mt to 23.8Mt (25.1Mt), and cut ending stocks by 1.4Mt, to 3.7Mt (3.2Mt). Maize production forecast was raised by 0.8Mt, to 15.3Mt (14.5Mt). Canola production was left unchanged at 18.8Mt but AAFC noted an error with 2022-23 carry in and/or production being underestimated by around 663kt which will be revised in the next report. 

China’s northeastern grain producing region is bracing for another deluge of heavy rain that could inundate corn and soybeans and further impact crop growth. 

The People’s Bank of China cut its 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points to a record low of 3.45pc while unexpectedly holding steady the 5-year rate at 4.2pc. Most economists had predicted a 15 basis point cut. Industrial profits in China fell more than expected in a report released over the weekend. China has opted to hold back on cutting rates excessively as it tries to shift away from debt-fuelled growth, even if it means reduced economic growth and a potential real estate crisis. 

US private exporters reported the sale of 111,770t corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2023-24 marketing year and 159,350t soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations.

Australia

Local markets continued to firm yesterday. Current crop ASW1 in Kwinana zone traded up to $390/t FIS, APW1 in Melbourne port zone traded at $390/t on Clear Grain Exchange for small volumes and new crop wheat markets were largely unchanged from the end of last week. SA barley firmed over the course of the day on current crop with BAR1 track, trading around $326-330/t levels and canola saw another day with gains of up to $5-10/t on new and current crop. Pulse demand also remains strong in Victoria zones with buyers on the hunt again. 

Average wait times for vessel loading increased in Adelaide, Albany, Kwinana, Port Lincoln and Wallaroo from last week but they are the only ports with vessels currently loading. There are only 6 vessels loading in Australian ports with 7 anchored which is quite a low vessel count.