Markets

Daily Market Wire 22 May 2024

Lachstock Consulting, May 22, 2024

Winter wheats gained a little. Other markets vacillated.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat up US8.25c/bu to 739.75c/bu;
  • Kansas December 2024 wheat up 5.75c/bu to 737c/bu;
  • Minneapolis December 2024 wheat down 1c/bu to 763.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2024 up €0.25/t to €262.25/t;
  • Corn December 2024 down 2c/bu to 482.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2024 down 3.75c/bu to 1213c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2024 up C4.70/t to C$685.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2024 down €4.25/t to €487.75/t;
  • ASX January 2025 wheat up $6.70/t to $400/t;
  • ASX January 2025 barley down $2.50/t to $337.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 2 points to US$0.6666.

International

Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies IKAR further cut its Russian wheat crop forecast to 83.5Mt after what it described as a more exact assessment of frost damage and dryness across the south. Total grain production is now forecast at 132Mt, down 3Mt from its previous outlook. It also lowered 2024-25 wheat exports by 2Mt to 45Mt. Total grain exports are now forecast at 57Mt, down 2.5Mt. 

The Ukraine Agriculture Department head forecaster said recent frosts in eastern, northern and central Ukraine did not cause significant damage to grain and oilseed crops as the temperature did not drop low enough. Damage to early seedlings of corn and sunflower was localised. Conditions in Ukraine were better than in Russia where frost had damaged significant crop areas. 

South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Argentine crop estimates at 50Mt for soybeans and 47Mt for corn, though he has a lower bias for both amid declining yields as harvest progresses. For Brazil, Dr Cordonnier left his crop forecasts at 147Mt for soybeans and 112Mt for corn, with a neutral bias for both. 

Brazil national agricultural agency Conab reported that as at 18 May, 2023-24 soybean harvest was 97pc complete (96pc previous week, 99pc previous year), as rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul hampered fieldwork, lowered productivity potential and eroded quality. In Rio Grande do Sul harvest was 85pc complete (79pc, 93pc). Primary (full-season) maize harvest was 72pc finished (68pc, 77pc), with the impact of heavy rains and flooding in Rio Grande do Sul evident in delayed harvest and crop quality issues. Secondary (safrinha) harvest is underway, estimated to be less than 1pc complete. 2024-25 wheat planting is 24pc complete (21pc, 31pc). 

Bunge Brazil reported that operations at a port terminal at Rio Grande had resumed, with a soybean processing plant in the area expected to come back online by the end of this week. 

US private exporters reported sales of 113,050 tonnes of corn to Mexico (56,525 tonnes is for delivery during the 2023-24 marketing year and 56,525 tonnes in 2024-25) and 110,000 tonnes of corn to Spain during the 2023-24 marketing year.

Australia

Tuesday’s local markets opened with a surge after the big offshore moves on Monday night. Volume of activity on Clear Grain Exchange lifted noticeably. Kwinana FIS wheat H2 grade traded A$422/t and CAN1 at $768/t. The ASX Jan 25 contract ended the day up $6.70/t at $400/t as the ongoing dry conditions continue to fuel uncertainty.

The importance of the potential rainfall event for WA on the 10-day forecast cannot be overstated – without rain in early June, production potential is going to keep slipping away.

This week’s line ups data shows that total grain on the stem has ticked higher to 2.97Mt compared to 2.88Mt last week. Wheat is unchanged at 1.65Mt, barley is down slightly at 453kt, canola is at 680kt down from 725kt and sorghum is showing 190kt up from 60kt. Wait times at Australian grain ports remained stable throughout the week, with overall wait time less than 10 days. There are 3 vessels anchored and 9 loading at Australian grain ports.

 

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