Daily Market Wire 23 August 2018

Lachstock Consulting, August 23, 2018

Lower for grains and oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat down 1.25c to 526c,
  • Kansas wheat down -4.5c to 530c,
  • Corn down -7.25c to 352.5c,c,
  • Soybeans down-16.25c to 858.25c,
  • Winnipeg canola down 5.90$C to 501.6$C,
  • Matif canola down-3.75€ to 376.75€.
  • Dow Jones down -88.690 to 25733.6
  • Crude oil up 0.18c to $US68.05 per barrel,
  • AUD up to 0.735c,
  • CAD downdown to 1.299c, (AUDCAD 0.955) ,
  • EUR up to 1.159c (AUDEUR 0.633).


Wheat found support early from the NAFTA chatter before getting caught up in the corn/beans deluge. Implied volatility in Sep Soft Red Winter finished at 25.625pc. We saw SRW push lower through the 100-day moving average (MA) and looking to reach the 50-day MA before traders remembered the global balance sheet and we ran out of sellers. European markets stabilised with Matif wheat finishing up €0.5/t to €205/t, closing €5/t off the day’s lows, while Russian values were US$2.75/t lower. Germany’s crop has been forecast down to 18.6Mt by their farm association, this marks a 23pc yearly decline. Moving forward tomorrow we have US weekly export sales that are expected at 650,000t. Structure remains the problem for wheat markets, we have historically tight balance sheets in the major exporters, but without consumers or fund buyers there is nothing to keep wheat afloat.


Corn sold off as reports circulated from the ProFarmer crop tour revealing large yield surprises. Nebraska was reported at 179.2bpa and Indiana was 182.3bpa. Early support was provided as news of a handshake NAFTA agreement between the US and Mexico was said to be announced on Thursday. However, Mexico later mentioned that they would not commit to anything until Canada was on board.


Beans sold off as crop tour reports surprised to the upside and enthusiasm waned for a China-US trade resolution. Yesterday’s tour results from Nebraska and Indiana showed pod counts 15pc and 12pc higher than last year. On a positive note the US government is scheduled to release details of its $12 billion-dollar aid package to farmers affected by tariff wars this Friday. Soybean producers are expected to fare quite well with talk of $1.65/bu. Soymeal was down $3.80/t and soy oil was down 37 points.


Aussie markets were softer yesterday particularly in WA with weakness in CBOT and weary consumer base, saw bids retreat and longs get nervous. The forecast is still there for northern NSW with 15-25mm scheduled. Any rainfall is great in a drought, but as far as its impact on grain production is concerned it shouldn’t do anything. It’s too late for winter crop and a lot more is required to get a summer crop up. The market needs to get this rainfall out of the way so it can refocus on the balance sheet and solve potential supply deficit.



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