Black Sea market analyst SovEcon revised its 2023-24 wheat crop forecast to 92.1Mt from 87.1Mt, making it the second highest crop on record after 2022-23. The revision reflects higher yields in the Russia’s Central and Volga regions. The update notes that raising the overall grain supply estimate won’t significantly increase export projections due to Russia’s infrastructure constraints. It pegged August export at 5.1Mt.
The EU Commission’s August MARS report noted that July weather was marked by frequent rains in large parts of north-western, northern central, and northern Europe, while heatwaves were a common feature in the south. At the EU level, impacts of these events on yield expectations have been limited. The average 2023-24 common wheat yield was unchanged from July at 5.6t/ha, barley unchanged at 4.7t/ha, maize revised down 1pc to 7.5t/ha and rapeseed, at 3.2t/ha, was unchanged from July. 

The Brazilian national agricultural agency Conab reported that, as at 19 August, the 2022-23 second (safrinha) maize harvest was 79pc complete (72pc previous week, 90pc previous year), with fieldwork in Mato Grosso complete. Reports indicated record high yields. In Paraná strong winds impacted harvest progress. Brazil’s 2023-24 wheat harvest was 5pc complete (4pc previous year) with crop development seen as satisfactory in Rio Grande do Sul owing to more favourable, drier conditions, which also was conducive to fieldwork. 

Egypt’s GASC purchased 60,000t Romanian wheat in an international tender yesterday at $270.25/t c&f for Oct shipment. Russian wheat offers were reportedly at $270/t FOB. 

Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association reportedly seeks 104,000t milling wheat from the US for Oct/Nov shipment

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Australia

Local markets continued their same theme yesterday; wheat in WA is still in demand with ASW1 values on current crop trading around $385-390/t FIS. Barley in SA was a fraction higher by the end of the day with track values of $326-328/t. Canola bids were down slightly on new and current crop.

Primary Industries and Regions South Australia’s (PIRSA) latest Crop Report has pegged 2023-24 wheat production at 5.08Mt, barley at 2.17Mt and canola at 472kt. The report noted that crop yields are expected to be close to the 10-year average, reflecting average rainfall for many areas of SA during April, May and June, which enabled a strong start to the cropping season, and good progress into mid-July. Good subsoil moisture levels have helped offset concern over the dry forecast, but the potential impact of frost is of concern given the early development of crops.

Line ups data show that there is 3.08Mt of total grain on the stem for August, up from 3.05Mt last week. Wheat is at 2.13Mt, down from 2.17Mt last week. Barley is at 388kt up from 302kt, canola is unchanged at 427kt and sorghum is unchanged at 130kt.