The day ahead
Weather – Argy is set to receive an inch of rain over the next 7 days, but worth noting that it is still behind norm for this time of year. Outside of that it is some minor attention on the recent cold snap through the US, and a general lack of snow cover in Russia following continued mild conditions keeps the door open for the topic of winterkill.
Markets – Veg oil complex was weaker overnight on the back of concerns around biodiesel consumption increases under the new Trump government. Corn was lower on the back of Trump considering 10 percent tariffs on Chinese imports.
Australian day ahead – Expect canola bids to pull back today on the back of weakening veg oil complex globally. Cereals bids are likely to be unchanged with only a small move lower overnight and an unchanged Aussie dollar.
Offshore
China imported 11.18 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat in 2024 according to China customs data, which compares to 12.1Mt imported in 2023. There was a significant reduction in corn imports; official data showed 2024 imports of 13.64Mt compared to 27.13Mt in 2023.
The soybean complex was weaker overnight following China announcing it had suspended some Brazilian soy shipments due to contamination, a tactic commonly used to avoid congestion at ports which potentially could have been caused by heavy buying of Brazilian beans in recent months.
Trump tariff relief was short lived when on Tuesday evening he said he was considering a 10pc tariff on Chinese imports, expected to lead to Chinese countermeasures, which pushed the corn market lower overnight.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said Russia might limit food exports if domestic supply were to fall short, aiming to stabilise the market. Speaking at a dairy conference, he stressed this would be a last resort to avoid harming Russia’s global market position. He did not specify which products might be affected.
Australia
Western Australian markets were largely unchanged yesterday. Canola was bid around $845 FIS, wheat was slightly firmer around $374 and barley $330-$340 depending on PZ

Western Australian port barley price, compared with eastern Australian, presently is a premium of around $30/t; FIS WA versus track eastern. The graph shows Kwinana relative to Geelong. Current season light blue line. $A per tonne.
All eastern Australian commodities were unchanged yesterday. Canola was bid around $802, wheat $345 and barley $305-310. The barley price spread, the WA premium compared with the eastern discount, presently is around $30; FIS WA and eastern track. The historical spread is about $20-25.
There is currently 527kt barley and 33kt wheat destined for China this month, with the bulk of this going out of WA.
Current wheat grade spreads are historically very narrow with a $15-$20 difference between H2 and ASW1 reflecting strength in domestic feed demand and lower-grade exports working into Asian homes.
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